65%

Win Probability

+18.0

Projected Margin

CI: [-2.0 to +38.0]

Boom Potential

Marvin Harrison Jr., Chargers D/ST

Bust Risk

Juwan Johnson (56%), Bucky Irving (48%), Jameson Williams (44%), Omarion Hampton (59%)

Start/Sit Decisions

Locked Slots (players already played):

WR: 🔒 Jaxon Smith-Njigba 23.6 pts

K: 🔒 Jason Myers 2.0 pts

Pending Decisions:

WR1_LOCKED: Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba over N/A LOCKED (TNF 23.6 pts). No change possible.

WR2_STATUS: Start Jameson Williams over N/A Highest unlocked WR (22.0 pts). DET game has highest total (51.5).

K_LOCKED: Start Jason Myers over N/A LOCKED (TNF 2.0 pts). No change possible.

QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Jordan Love Higher projection (21.0 vs 15.0). ATL dome game, elite matchup.

RB1: Start Bucky Irving over Omarion Hampton Higher projection (14.0 vs 13.0). Clear lead back vs CAR.

RB2: Start Omarion Hampton over Tyjae Spears Higher projection (13.0 vs 10.0). Better opportunity share.

D/ST: Start Chargers D/ST over Rams D/ST Higher projection (12.0 vs 4.0). DAL 32nd vs D/ST, XGB 55% boom.

FLEX: Start Marvin Harrison Jr. over Tetairoa McMillan MHJ EXPECTED TO PLAY (15.0 > 13.0). ATL defense collapsed vs WRs - 7 games of 15+ pts in 5 weeks. CB Hughes OUT. Snap count risk but ceiling play for playoffs.

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

Slot	Player	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Confidence
QB	Jacoby Brissett	ATL	18.8	21.0	BOOM	MEDIUM
RB	Bucky Irving	CAR	15.2	14.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
RB	Omarion Hampton	DAL	13.2	13.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	LAR	19.9	23.6	BOOM	MEDIUM
WR	Jameson Williams	PIT	15.9	22.0	BOOM	MEDIUM
TE	Juwan Johnson	NYJ	9.1	9.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
K	Jason Myers	LAR	8.1	2.0	BUST	MEDIUM
D/ST	Chargers D/ST	DAL	4.2	12.0	BOOM	MEDIUM
WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	ATL	14.2	15.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM

Waiver Wire

Semi-finals roster optimization - maximize ceiling for championship week positioning

#1 Hunter Henry (TE, NE)

DROP: Juwan Johnson (if seeking upgrade)

Most consistent TE on waivers. Rolling avg (10.5) above season avg (9.9). Better floor than Juwan Johnson who faces wind at MetLife. Week 17: vs BUF (...

#2 49ers D/ST (D/ST, SF)

DROP: Rams D/ST

SCORCHING HOT trend - rolling avg 11.1 vs season avg 3.6 (208% improvement). Week 17 vs DET is tough but IND matchup this week is solid. Drop Rams D/S...

#3 Rashid Shaheed (WR, SEA)

DROP: Conditional - bench depth

Already played TNF - check actual score. Deep threat with big-play upside. Neutral trend shows consistency. Could be WR insurance if Rashee Rice ruled...

⚠️ Avoid: Keenan Allen, Oronde Gadsden II, Quentin Johnston, Emanuel Wilson

See Waivers tab for full analysis and injury opportunities.

Executive Summary

Week 16 playoff semifinal against 4th and pinches (10-5). Our 9-6 Valued Customers face a critical matchup with ESPN projecting us as 2-point underdogs (123.5 vs 125.5). Key advantage: Jacoby Brissett has emerged as a matchup-proof QB3, posting 20+ points in every Arizona start, facing a vulnerable Falcons defense in a dome. The Chargers D/ST draw the best matchup in fantasy against a broken Cowboys offense (32nd worst). Concerns center on Rashee Rice's ceiling capped by Mahomes injury (Minshew starts) and MHJ remaining OUT with a heel injury.

Key Insights

CRITICAL: Patrick Mahomes OUT for season - Gardner Minshew starts for KC, caps Rice/Pacheco ceiling
Brissett QB3 projection: 20+ floor every AZ start, ATL allows top-6 QB 2 of 3 weeks, dome game
Chargers D/ST SMASH: 55% XGB boom, DAL 32nd (worst) vs opposing D/ST
MHJ PLAYING: Practiced 3 days, said "good enough to go" - but snap count expected. ATL CB Hughes OUT.
Juwan Johnson INCENTIVE: needs 8 catches for 250k bonus - Saints may target him
Highest total: DET vs PIT (51.5) = Jameson Williams ceiling game
Lowest total: KC @ TEN (37.5) = Rice/Pacheco ceiling concern

Matchup Status (Week 16)

25.6 - 0.0 vs 4th and pinches

Games Completed (3)

Player	Pos	Slot	Actual	ESPN	LLM
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	WR	✓ 23.6	19.9	23.6
Jason Myers	K	K	✓ 2.0	8.1	2.0
Rams D/ST (bench)	D/ST	BE	✓ 4.0	5.7	4.0

Games Pending (14)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Jacoby Brissett	QB	QB	18.8	21.0
Bucky Irving	RB	RB	15.2	14.0
Omarion Hampton	RB	RB	13.2	13.0
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	WR	13.1	13.0
Juwan Johnson	TE	TE	9.1	9.0
Jameson Williams	WR	RB/WR/TE	15.9	22.0
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	4.2	12.0
Devin Singletary (bench)	RB	BE	7.5	4.0
Isiah Pacheco (bench)	RB	BE	9.3	6.0
Jayden Reed (bench)	WR	BE	11.2	13.0
Jordan Love (bench)	QB	BE	17.3	15.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench)	WR	BE	14.2	15.0
Tyjae Spears (bench)	RB	BE	8.7	10.0
Rashee Rice (bench)	WR	IR	0.0	5.0

25.6 Actual

131.6 LLM Total

115.1 ESPN Total

Opponent: 4th and pinches

Opponent Games Completed (1)

Player	Pos	Slot	Actual	ESPN	LLM	vs ESPN
Colby Parkinson (bench)	TE	BE	✓ 4.1	9.6	---	-5.5

Opponent Games Pending (15)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Baker Mayfield	QB	QB	16.6	---
Michael Carter	RB	RB	11.0	---
Rico Dowdle	RB	RB	15.2	---
DK Metcalf	WR	WR	13.5	---
Michael Wilson	WR	WR	13.4	---
Trey McBride	TE	TE	16.8	---
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	RB/WR/TE	23.9	---
Harrison Butker	K	K	8.0	---
Jaguars D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	5.6	---
Aaron Rodgers (bench)	QB	BE	14.8	---
Darren Waller (bench)	TE	BE	9.3	---
Jordan Addison (bench)	WR	BE	10.5	---
Kareem Hunt (bench)	RB	BE	11.0	---
Rome Odunze (bench)	WR	BE	0.0	---
Romeo Doubs (bench)	WR	BE	9.6	---

0.0 Opp Actual

110.0 Opp LLM Total

124.0 Opp ESPN Total

Projected Margin: +21.6 pts

Jordan Love (GB vs CHI)

Projections: ESPN 17.3 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 21% BOOM / 53% MODERATE. XGB: 27% BOOM / 21% BUST. SNOW GAME (100% precip, 28F, 10mph wind). Weather suppresses passing upside significantly. Despite decent game total (46.5), snow conditions favor running game. Mode: MODERATE (weather-adjusted down). Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-24).

Context: O/U: 46.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	DEN	14.8	17.0	13.9	-0.9
14	CHI	17.6	18.0	19.3	+1.6
13	DET	15.7	18.2	25.8	+10.0
12	MIN	17.4	-	7.1	-10.4
11	NYG	16.3	-	17.7	+1.3
10	PHI	17.0	-	7.8	-9.1
9	CAR	18.1	-	9.0	-9.1
8	PIT	17.1	-	28.3	+11.2
7	ARI	17.4	-	13.4	-4.0
6	CIN	19.3	-	15.0	-4.4
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	DAL	18.6	-	26.3	+7.7
3	CLE	16.0	-	11.1	-4.9
2	WSH	17.6	-	20.9	+3.3
1	DET	14.9	-	15.9	+1.0

Trending up: 19.7 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.51)
Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 18.8 | LLM 21.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 74% BOOM (historical). XGB: 14% BOOM (this week). MC heavily favors boom, XGB conservative. Vegas #5 QB (18.3), game total 48.5. High-scoring game script + dome environment. Trust MC historical pattern given favorable game environment. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 21.0 pts (within BOOM range 17-32).

Context: O/U: 48.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 37% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	HOU	13.9	16.0	20.6	+6.7
14	LAR	15.3	19.0	19.0	+3.7
13	TB	17.2	20.5	19.6	+2.4
12	JAX	16.7	-	18.7	+1.9
11	SF	17.9	-	21.9	+3.9
10	SEA	15.3	-	19.4	+4.2
9	DAL	19.4	-	24.8	+5.4
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	16.6	-	19.8	+3.2
6	IND	13.4	-	20.7	+7.3
5	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	CAR	0.0	-	0.2	+0.2
1	NO	0.1	-	0.0	-0.1

6-game streak of beating projections
Averaging 12.3 pts vs 9.7 projected (+27%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.85)
Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Bucky Irving (TB vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 17% BOOM / 59% MODERATE. XGB: 13% BOOM / 48% BUST. Clear lead back, good game total (45.5), clear weather. CAR defense rank 22 (below average for RBs). XGB overly pessimistic historically. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.0 pts (within MODERATE range 7-20).

Context: O/U: 45.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 59% | BOOM: 17%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	ATL	15.2	14.0	8.1	-7.1
14	NO	16.4	16.0	16.1	-0.3
13	ARI	11.8	12.0	16.1	+4.3
12	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	NE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	NO	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	PHI	17.5	-	25.5	+8.0
3	NYJ	17.9	-	13.9	-4.0
2	HOU	15.9	-	18.1	+2.2
1	ATL	17.3	-	14.5	-2.8

Trending up: 13.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs KC)

Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 14% BOOM / 61% MODERATE. XGB: 16% BOOM / 37% BUST. ELITE matchup vs KC (rank 6 - 6th most pts allowed to RBs). BUT low game total (37.5) limits opportunities. Conflicting signals - great matchup, bad environment. Mode: MODERATE (matchup upside capped by low total). Projection: 10.0 pts (within MODERATE range 5-14).

Context: O/U: 37.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 37% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	SF	10.0	6.0	5.6	-4.4
14	CLE	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.9
13	JAX	9.9	8.0	8.4	-1.5
12	SEA	9.6	-	6.5	-3.1
11	HOU	9.0	-	8.4	-0.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	LAC	9.5	-	9.2	-0.3
8	IND	9.5	-	17.2	+7.7
7	NE	7.8	-	7.0	-0.8
6	LV	5.6	-	9.0	+3.4
5	ARI	5.4	-	1.4	-4.0
4	HOU	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

5-game streak of missing projections
Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs DAL)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 25% BOOM / 43% MODERATE. XGB: 9% BOOM / 59% BUST. Highest game total (49.5) but DAL defense rank 25 (tough). Game script favors passing but dome environment helps. Mode: MODERATE (high floor). Projection: 13.0 pts (within MODERATE range 7-17).

Context: O/U: 49.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 59% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	KC	11.7	10.0	7.5	-4.2
14	PHI	12.1	8.0	14.7	+2.6
13	LV	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	PIT	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	MIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	MIA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	WSH	18.6	-	13.0	-5.6
4	NYG	16.7	-	27.5	+10.8
3	DEN	12.2	-	24.9	+12.7
2	LV	15.7	-	3.5	-12.2
1	KC	14.7	-	8.1	-6.6

Trending up: 7.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.42)
Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Devin Singletary (NYG vs MIN)

Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 4.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 18% BOOM / 61% BUST. XGB: 10% BOOM / 58% BUST. Both models agree on bust risk. MIN defense rank 17 (average), dome environment helps. Limited snap share and touches hurt floor. Mode: BUST. Projection: 4.0 pts (within BUST range 0-8).

Context: O/U: 43.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 59% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	WSH	10.8	6.0	2.4	-8.4
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NE	6.3	-	19.2	+12.9
12	DET	9.9	-	4.7	-5.2
11	GB	9.6	-	17.7	+8.1
10	CHI	9.7	-	10.3	+0.6
9	SF	5.5	-	7.1	+1.6
8	PHI	1.2	-	3.8	+2.6
7	DEN	0.8	-	0.2	-0.6
6	PHI	1.0	-	1.0	+0.0
5	NO	6.0	-	3.4	-2.6
4	LAC	7.4	-	2.8	-4.6
3	KC	1.1	-	1.1	+0.0
2	DAL	3.2	-	1.0	-2.2
1	WSH	3.5	-	0.9	-2.6

Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (KC vs TEN)

Projections: ESPN 9.3 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 3% BOOM / 70% BUST. XGB: 12% BOOM / 60% BUST. Both models agree on bust. Low game total (37.5), TEN defense rank 26 (solid vs RBs). Committee usage limits upside. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 0-11).

Context: O/U: 37.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 59% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	7.2	-	2.1	-5.1
14	HOU	8.3	-	3.0	-5.3
13	DAL	9.7	-	5.3	-4.4
12	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	WSH	11.4	-	5.8	-5.6
7	LV	11.5	-	12.4	+0.9
6	DET	8.9	-	6.1	-2.8
5	JAX	7.7	-	8.6	+0.9
4	BAL	9.2	-	12.8	+3.6
3	NYG	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
2	PHI	10.9	-	3.9	-7.0
1	LAC	12.8	-	4.8	-8.0

3-game streak of missing projections
Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 19.9 | LLM 23.6 (BOOM)

Reasoning: GAME COMPLETED - Actual score: 23.6 pts (BOOM). TNF performance exceeded ESPN projection of 19.9.

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	20.6	22.0	18.3	-2.3
14	ATL	20.9	22.0	28.1	+7.2
13	MIN	21.9	24.0	4.3	-17.6
12	TEN	21.3	-	37.1	+15.8
11	LAR	23.0	-	20.6	-2.4
10	ARI	22.0	-	20.3	-1.7
9	WSH	24.5	-	22.0	-2.5
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	HOU	20.0	-	26.3	+6.3
6	JAX	17.9	-	30.2	+12.3
5	TB	15.9	-	27.2	+11.3
4	ARI	16.4	-	13.0	-3.4
3	NO	15.5	-	20.6	+5.1
2	PIT	14.4	-	18.3	+3.9
1	SF	14.7	-	19.4	+4.7

Averaging 20.4 pts vs 17.9 projected (+14%)
Trending down: 16.9 avg (last 3) vs 26.0 (prior 3)
Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs TB)

Projections: ESPN 13.1 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 14% BOOM / 49% BUST / 37% MODERATE. XGB: 17% BOOM / 22% BUST. Practicing Thursday (ankle/foot). ATL defense rank 26. Good game total (48.5). May see increased targets if MHJ limited. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 13.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-19).

Context: O/U: 48.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	NO	13.2	11.0	4.5	-8.7
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	LAR	13.2	13.0	11.3	-1.9
12	SF	16.3	-	11.5	-4.8
11	ATL	13.5	-	33.0	+19.5
10	NO	12.2	-	11.0	-1.2
9	GB	12.9	-	8.6	-4.3
8	BUF	13.4	-	16.9	+3.5
7	NYJ	12.5	-	6.3	-6.2
6	DAL	14.6	-	17.9	+3.3
5	MIA	14.2	-	13.3	-0.9
4	NE	14.2	-	10.2	-4.0
3	ATL	13.2	-	7.8	-5.4
2	ARI	13.5	-	16.0	+2.5
1	JAX	13.9	-	11.8	-2.1

Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 14.2 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM (historical) / 43% MODERATE. XGB: 42% BOOM (this week) / 23% BUST. UPDATED: MHJ practiced all 3 days (limited), told media "heel is good enough to go" - EXPECTED TO PLAY [azcardinals.com]. ATL defense has collapsed vs WRs - surrendered 7 games of 15+ pts over last 5 weeks, CB Mike Hughes OUT [profootballnetwork.com]. Game total 47.0 (high scoring expected). BUT first game back after 2 weeks = snap count likely. Mode: MODERATE (injury caution despite favorable matchup). Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-18).

Context: O/U: 48.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	HOU	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
14	LAR	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	TB	13.7	14.0	12.9	-0.8
12	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	SEA	13.3	-	14.3	+1.0
9	DAL	13.3	-	22.6	+9.3
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	12.5	-	7.8	-4.7
6	IND	11.9	-	5.2	-6.7
5	TEN	12.8	-	13.8	+1.0
4	SEA	11.3	-	18.6	+7.3
3	SF	12.7	-	7.4	-5.3
2	CAR	14.0	-	4.7	-9.3
1	NO	13.9	-	18.1	+4.2

Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs TEN)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 5.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 39% BOOM / 37% BUST. XGB: 24% BOOM / 31% BUST. CONCUSSION PROTOCOL - not practicing Wed/Thu. TEN defense rank 29 (3rd toughest vs WR). Low game total (37.5). Per Reddit: "Rashee Rice (concussion) is not practicing on Thursday" [r/fantasyfootball]. HIGH RISK - may be OUT. IF ACTIVE: significantly limited effectiveness expected. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within BUST range, reflecting injury risk). Monitor Friday report.

Context: O/U: 37.5

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 31% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	17.2	11.0	12.1	-5.1
14	HOU	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.7
13	DAL	18.1	18.4	29.4	+11.3
12	IND	17.6	-	24.1	+6.5
11	DEN	16.4	-	9.8	-6.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	18.4	-	18.6	+0.2
8	WSH	17.2	-	25.5	+8.2
7	LV	13.7	-	23.2	+9.5
6	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	BAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	LAC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs PIT)

Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 22.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 29% BOOM / 44% MODERATE. XGB: 12% BOOM / 43% BUST. LINEUP LOCK per ESPN. Highest game total (52.5) in favorable passing environment. PIT defense rank 21 (below average). MC shows boom upside, XGB overly conservative historically. Detroit passing attack elite. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 22.0 pts (within BOOM range 17-30).

Context: O/U: 52.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAR	13.9	18.0	26.4	+12.5
14	DAL	13.8	17.3	17.3	+3.5
13	GB	11.8	15.1	26.9	+15.1
12	NYG	12.9	-	0.0	-12.9
11	PHI	12.6	-	19.7	+7.1
10	WSH	12.1	-	23.9	+11.8
9	MIN	11.0	-	16.6	+5.6
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	TB	13.2	-	0.0	-13.2
6	KC	10.7	-	18.6	+7.9
5	CIN	11.8	-	2.0	-9.8
4	CLE	10.7	-	5.7	-5.0
3	BAL	12.9	-	6.3	-6.6
2	CHI	13.0	-	18.8	+5.8
1	GB	12.9	-	6.6	-6.3

3-game streak of beating projections
Trending up: 23.5 avg (last 3) vs 14.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.79)
Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Jayden Reed (GB vs CHI)

Projections: ESPN 11.2 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 10% BOOM / 66% MODERATE. XGB: 13% BOOM / 52% BUST. CONFLICTING: Elite matchup (CHI rank 30 vs WR) BUT snow game (100% precip). Bears WRs Odunze/Burden OUT - Packers may throw to stay ahead. Snow typically hurts passing, but elite matchup too good. Mode: MODERATE (weather-adjusted from potential boom). Projection: 13.0 pts (within MODERATE range 7-20).

Context: O/U: 46.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 10%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	DEN	10.0	-	10.5	+0.5
14	CHI	7.7	-	9.3	+1.6
13	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
12	MIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	CAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	PIT	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	ARI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	CIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	DAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	CLE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	WSH	11.3	-	0.0	-11.3
1	DET	11.2	-	13.5	+2.3

Averaging 2.2 pts vs 2.7 projected (-17%)
Trending up: 6.6 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.10)
Season high: 13.5 pts in Week 1

Juwan Johnson (NO vs NYJ)

Projections: ESPN 9.1 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 30% BOOM / 45% MODERATE. XGB: 18% BOOM / 57% BUST. Wind game at MetLife (12mph sustained, 23mph gusts). NYJ defense rank 16 (average vs TE). Wind affects deep balls but TE targets often intermediate. Also has 250k bonus for 8 catches - motivation. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts (within MODERATE range 5-13).

Context: O/U: 40.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	CAR	9.7	10.0	7.0	-2.7
14	TB	9.7	10.0	7.8	-1.9
13	MIA	8.7	11.0	8.9	+0.2
12	ATL	9.3	-	10.6	+1.3
11	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	CAR	8.9	-	19.2	+10.2
9	LAR	8.3	-	12.1	+3.8
8	TB	9.6	-	10.3	+0.7
7	CHI	7.5	-	12.9	+5.4
6	NE	7.9	-	1.5	-6.4
5	NYG	7.9	-	3.7	-4.2
4	BUF	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
3	SEA	10.6	-	11.1	+0.5
2	SF	9.1	-	15.9	+6.8
1	ARI	7.3	-	15.6	+8.3

Averaging 9.5 pts vs 8.4 projected (+13%)
Trending down: 7.9 avg (last 3) vs 9.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs CHI

Projections: ESPN 17.3 | LLM 15.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21%

Notes: MC: 21% BOOM / 53% MODERATE. XGB: 27% BOOM / 21% BUST. SNOW GAME (100% precip, 28F, 10mph wind). Weather suppresses passing upside significantly. Despite decent game total (46.5), snow conditions favor running game. Mode: MODERATE (weather-adjusted down). Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-24).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	DEN	14.8	17.0	13.9	-0.9
14	CHI	17.6	18.0	19.3	+1.6
13	DET	15.7	18.2	25.8	+10.0
12	MIN	17.4	-	7.1	-10.4
11	NYG	16.3	-	17.7	+1.3
10	PHI	17.0	-	7.8	-9.1
9	CAR	18.1	-	9.0	-9.1
8	PIT	17.1	-	28.3	+11.2
7	ARI	17.4	-	13.4	-4.0
6	CIN	19.3	-	15.0	-4.4
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	DAL	18.6	-	26.3	+7.7
3	CLE	16.0	-	11.1	-4.9
2	WSH	17.6	-	20.9	+3.3
1	DET	14.9	-	15.9	+1.0

Trending up: 19.7 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.51)
Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs TB

Projections: ESPN 13.1 | LLM 13.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 14% BOOM / 49% BUST / 37% MODERATE. XGB: 17% BOOM / 22% BUST. Practicing Thursday (ankle/foot). ATL defense rank 26. Good game total (48.5). May see increased targets if MHJ limited. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 13.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-19).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	NO	13.2	11.0	4.5	-8.7
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	LAR	13.2	13.0	11.3	-1.9
12	SF	16.3	-	11.5	-4.8
11	ATL	13.5	-	33.0	+19.5
10	NO	12.2	-	11.0	-1.2
9	GB	12.9	-	8.6	-4.3
8	BUF	13.4	-	16.9	+3.5
7	NYJ	12.5	-	6.3	-6.2
6	DAL	14.6	-	17.9	+3.3
5	MIA	14.2	-	13.3	-0.9
4	NE	14.2	-	10.2	-4.0
3	ATL	13.2	-	7.8	-5.4
2	ARI	13.5	-	16.0	+2.5
1	JAX	13.9	-	11.8	-2.1

Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Rashee Rice (WR) - KC vs TEN

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 5.0

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 31%

Notes: MC: 39% BOOM / 37% BUST. XGB: 24% BOOM / 31% BUST. CONCUSSION PROTOCOL - not practicing Wed/Thu. TEN defense rank 29 (3rd toughest vs WR). Low game total (37.5). Per Reddit: "Rashee Rice (concussion) is not practicing on Thursday" [r/fantasyfootball]. HIGH RISK - may be OUT. IF ACTIVE: significantly limited effectiveness expected. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within BUST range, reflecting injury risk). Monitor Friday report.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	17.2	11.0	12.1	-5.1
14	HOU	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.7
13	DAL	18.1	18.4	29.4	+11.3
12	IND	17.6	-	24.1	+6.5
11	DEN	16.4	-	9.8	-6.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	18.4	-	18.6	+0.2
8	WSH	17.2	-	25.5	+8.2
7	LV	13.7	-	23.2	+9.5
6	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	BAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	LAC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs KC

Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 10.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 37%

Notes: MC: 14% BOOM / 61% MODERATE. XGB: 16% BOOM / 37% BUST. ELITE matchup vs KC (rank 6 - 6th most pts allowed to RBs). BUT low game total (37.5) limits opportunities. Conflicting signals - great matchup, bad environment. Mode: MODERATE (matchup upside capped by low total). Projection: 10.0 pts (within MODERATE range 5-14).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	SF	10.0	6.0	5.6	-4.4
14	CLE	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.9
13	JAX	9.9	8.0	8.4	-1.5
12	SEA	9.6	-	6.5	-3.1
11	HOU	9.0	-	8.4	-0.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	LAC	9.5	-	9.2	-0.3
8	IND	9.5	-	17.2	+7.7
7	NE	7.8	-	7.0	-0.8
6	LV	5.6	-	9.0	+3.4
5	ARI	5.4	-	1.4	-4.0
4	HOU	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

5-game streak of missing projections
Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Rams D/ST (D/ST) - LAR vs SEA

Projections: ESPN 5.7 | LLM 4.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 58%

Notes: MC: 22% BOOM / 40% BUST. XGB: 11% BOOM / 59% BUST. Already played TNF - JSN dropped 23.6 on them. Seattle offense efficient. Mode: BUST. Projection: 4.0 pts (actual from game).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	DET	4.2	4.0	-1.0	-5.2
14	ARI	6.9	9.0	6.0	-0.9
13	CAR	7.5	10.0	1.0	-6.5
12	TB	5.7	-	20.0	+14.3
11	SEA	5.4	-	5.0	-0.4
10	SF	6.4	-	5.0	-1.4
9	NO	8.2	-	10.0	+1.8
7	JAX	6.7	-	9.0	+2.3
6	BAL	6.2	-	16.0	+9.8
5	SF	7.0	-	-2.0	-9.0
4	IND	5.7	-	6.0	+0.3
3	PHI	5.2	-	7.0	+1.8
2	TEN	7.4	-	9.0	+1.6
1	HOU	5.6	-	12.0	+6.4

3-game streak of missing projections
Averaging 7.4 pts vs 6.3 projected (+17%)
Trending down: 2.0 avg (last 3) vs 10.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
Season high: 20.0 pts in Week 12

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs MIN

Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 4.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 59%

Notes: MC: 18% BOOM / 61% BUST. XGB: 10% BOOM / 58% BUST. Both models agree on bust risk. MIN defense rank 17 (average), dome environment helps. Limited snap share and touches hurt floor. Mode: BUST. Projection: 4.0 pts (within BUST range 0-8).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	WSH	10.8	6.0	2.4	-8.4
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NE	6.3	-	19.2	+12.9
12	DET	9.9	-	4.7	-5.2
11	GB	9.6	-	17.7	+8.1
10	CHI	9.7	-	10.3	+0.6
9	SF	5.5	-	7.1	+1.6
8	PHI	1.2	-	3.8	+2.6
7	DEN	0.8	-	0.2	-0.6
6	PHI	1.0	-	1.0	+0.0
5	NO	6.0	-	3.4	-2.6
4	LAC	7.4	-	2.8	-4.6
3	KC	1.1	-	1.1	+0.0
2	DAL	3.2	-	1.0	-2.2
1	WSH	3.5	-	0.9	-2.6

Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (RB) - KC vs TEN

Projections: ESPN 9.3 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 59%

Notes: MC: 3% BOOM / 70% BUST. XGB: 12% BOOM / 60% BUST. Both models agree on bust. Low game total (37.5), TEN defense rank 26 (solid vs RBs). Committee usage limits upside. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 0-11).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	7.2	-	2.1	-5.1
14	HOU	8.3	-	3.0	-5.3
13	DAL	9.7	-	5.3	-4.4
12	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	WSH	11.4	-	5.8	-5.6
7	LV	11.5	-	12.4	+0.9
6	DET	8.9	-	6.1	-2.8
5	JAX	7.7	-	8.6	+0.9
4	BAL	9.2	-	12.8	+3.6
3	NYG	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
2	PHI	10.9	-	3.9	-7.0
1	LAC	12.8	-	4.8	-8.0

3-game streak of missing projections
Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jayden Reed (WR) - GB vs CHI

Projections: ESPN 11.2 | LLM 13.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 10%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52%

Notes: MC: 10% BOOM / 66% MODERATE. XGB: 13% BOOM / 52% BUST. CONFLICTING: Elite matchup (CHI rank 30 vs WR) BUT snow game (100% precip). Bears WRs Odunze/Burden OUT - Packers may throw to stay ahead. Snow typically hurts passing, but elite matchup too good. Mode: MODERATE (weather-adjusted from potential boom). Projection: 13.0 pts (within MODERATE range 7-20).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	DEN	10.0	-	10.5	+0.5
14	CHI	7.7	-	9.3	+1.6
13	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
12	MIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	CAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	PIT	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	ARI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	CIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	DAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	CLE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	WSH	11.3	-	0.0	-11.3
1	DET	11.2	-	13.5	+2.3

Averaging 2.2 pts vs 2.7 projected (-17%)
Trending up: 6.6 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.10)
Season high: 13.5 pts in Week 1

High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

Jaguars D/ST (D/ST): 48% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

Player	Pos	Team	ESPN	LLM	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%	Threat
Jaguars D/ST	D/ST	JAX	5.6	9.1	48%	32%	20%	HIGH
DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	13.5	12.7	30%	50%	20%	MEDIUM
Baker Mayfield	QB	TB	16.6	17.2	18%	59%	23%	LOW
Trey McBride	TE	ARI	16.8	17.2	17%	63%	20%	LOW
Harrison Butker	K	KC	8.0	8.3	16%	26%	57%	LOW
Michael Carter	RB	ARI	11.0	8.8	16%	45%	39%	LOW
Rico Dowdle	RB	CAR	15.2	13.1	14%	59%	27%	LOW
Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	13.4	12.5	8%	36%	56%	LOW
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	23.9	20.5	7%	23%	70%	LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Jaguars D/ST: MC (BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 42%) | XGB (Boom 48% | Bust 20%)

DK Metcalf: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 21%) | XGB (Boom 30% | Bust 20%)

Baker Mayfield: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 52% | BOOM: 14%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 23%)

Trey McBride: MC (BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 17% | Bust 20%)

Harrison Butker: MC (BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 46% | BOOM: 25%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 57%)

Michael Carter: MC (BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 30%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 39%)

Rico Dowdle: MC (BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 19%) | XGB (Boom 14% | Bust 27%)

Michael Wilson: MC (BUST: 55% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 8% | Bust 56%)

Jahmyr Gibbs: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 24%) | XGB (Boom 7% | Bust 70%)

Add/Drop Recommendations

Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster

🎯 Priority Pickups (Injury/Opportunity Based)

Semi-finals roster optimization - maximize ceiling for championship week positioning

#1 Hunter Henry (TE, NE)

vs vs BAL (Average (BAL 16th vs TE))

ESPN: 10.4 Trend: NEUTRAL DROP: Juwan Johnson (if seeking upgrade)

Most consistent TE on waivers. Rolling avg (10.5) above season avg (9.9). Better floor than Juwan Johnson who faces wind at MetLife. Week 17: vs BUF (17th vs TE) - solid playoff matchup.

Week 17: vs BUF - 17th vs TE, steady option

#2 49ers D/ST (D/ST, SF)

vs vs IND (Good (IND turnover-prone))

ESPN: 4.7 Trend: HOT (+208%) DROP: Rams D/ST

SCORCHING HOT trend - rolling avg 11.1 vs season avg 3.6 (208% improvement). Week 17 vs DET is tough but IND matchup this week is solid. Drop Rams D/ST who just gave up 23.6 to JSN.

Week 17: vs DET - tough but they are peaking at right time

#3 Rashid Shaheed (WR, SEA)

vs vs LAR (Average (LAR 24th vs WR))

ESPN: 9.7 Trend: NEUTRAL DROP: Conditional - bench depth

Already played TNF - check actual score. Deep threat with big-play upside. Neutral trend shows consistency. Could be WR insurance if Rashee Rice ruled OUT.

Week 17: Check Week 17 matchup if picking up

#4 Evan McPherson (K, CIN)

vs vs MIA (Good (CIN offense productive))

ESPN: 8.0 Trend: HOT (+55%) DROP: None needed (if have K spot)

HOT STREAK - rolling 12.7 vs season 8.2. CIN offense moving ball. Could upgrade from Jason Myers (2.0 TNF). Week 17 at DEN - dome game, reliable.

Week 17: at DEN - dome game, high floor

⚠️ Players to Avoid

Keenan Allen (WR)

COLD trend - rolling 7.1 vs season 11.4 (-38%). Only add if desperate for WR depth.

Oronde Gadsden II (TE)

COLD trend - rolling 5.9 vs season 9.4 (-37%). Inconsistent target share.

Quentin Johnston (WR)

COLD trend - rolling 6.4 vs season 11.3 (-43%). Questionable status. Boom/bust profile unreliable for playoffs.

Emanuel Wilson (RB)

COLD trend - rolling 3.4 vs season 5.5. Snow game at CHI. Josh Jacobs handcuff only.

Devin Neal (RB)

IR designation - not playing Week 16. Was HOT trend but now injured.

Jayden Daniels (QB)

OUT - not playing Week 16.

Kyler Murray (QB)

INJURY_RESERVE - not playing.

📋 Quick Summary

ADD Hunter Henry, DROP Juwan Johnson - TE upgrade with better floor
ADD 49ers D/ST, DROP Rams D/ST - HOT trend vs busted Rams
MONITOR Rashee Rice - if OUT Friday, add Hollywood Brown or Xavier Worthy
STASH Evan McPherson if K streaming

MC-Based Analysis (Auto-Generated)

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (7): Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (36 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Isiah Pacheco (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Jayden Reed (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts))

ADD Chiefs D/ST D/ST,

Boom%53%

Bust%18%

EV7.6

BUST: 26% (-4-8) MODERATE: 44% (0-12) BOOM: 30% (6-21)

DROP Rashee Rice WR

Boom%24%

Bust%31%

EV0.0

OUT: 100% (0-0)

ADD Chargers D/ST D/ST,

Boom%52%

Bust%17%

EV9.1

BUST: 24% (-3-9) MODERATE: 44% (2-14) BOOM: 32% (7-22)

ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,

Boom%47%

Bust%20%

EV12.0

BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (8-20) BOOM: 14% (13-28)

ADD Jayden Daniels QB,

Boom%34%

Bust%30%

EV0.0

OUT: 100% (0-0)

ADD Zach Ertz TE,

Boom%28%

Bust%24%

EV10.2

BUST: 17% (-0-6) MODERATE: 50% (4-13) BOOM: 34% (11-23)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

Player	Pos	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%	Own%
Chiefs D/ST	D/ST	7.6	53%	18%	0.0%
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	9.1	52%	17%	0.0%
J.K. Dobbins	RB	12.0	47%	20%	0.0%
Jayden Daniels	QB	0.0	34%	30%	0.0%
Zach Ertz	TE	10.2	28%	24%	0.0%
Evan Engram	TE	7.9	27%	24%	0.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn	K	10.7	26%	26%	0.0%
Commanders D/ST	D/ST	7.8	24%	38%	0.0%
Isiah Pacheco	RB	8.0	22%	28%	0.0%
Patriots D/ST	D/ST	8.8	22%	43%	0.0%
Bears D/ST	D/ST	8.5	20%	30%	0.0%
Matt Prater	K	0.0	19%	54%	0.0%
Cooper Kupp	WR	10.0	18%	48%	0.0%
Devin Neal	RB	9.6	18%	45%	0.0%
Eddy Pineiro	K	10.0	17%	45%	0.0%

QB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Jayden Daniels	0.0	OUT:100%	34%	30%
Justin Fields	16.4	BUST:40%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30%	14%	50%
Sam Darnold	15.4	BUST:38%, MODERATE:37%, BOOM:24%	13%	44%
Kyler Murray	16.9	BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25%	11%	54%

RB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
J.K. Dobbins	12.0	BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14%	47%	20%
Isiah Pacheco	8.0	BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3%	22%	28%
Devin Neal	9.6	BUST:35%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:19%	18%	45%
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	7.4	BUST:41%, MODERATE:56%, BOOM:2%	16%	45%
Trey Benson	8.8	BUST:33%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24%	12%	57%
Emanuel Wilson	7.7	BUST:56%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:10%	9%	60%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	9.4	BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12%	8%	61%

WR Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Cooper Kupp	10.0	BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12%	18%	48%
Quentin Johnston	11.8	BUST:29%, MODERATE:54%, BOOM:18%	15%	39%
Garrett Wilson	14.9	BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:22%	15%	48%
Rashid Shaheed	10.3	BUST:28%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:30%	14%	53%
Keenan Allen	11.7	BUST:69%, MODERATE:22%, BOOM:9%	9%	56%

TE Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Zach Ertz	10.2	BUST:17%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:34%	28%	24%
Evan Engram	7.9	BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20%	27%	24%
Hunter Henry	9.6	BUST:51%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12%	8%	62%
Oronde Gadsden II	9.4	BUST:39%, MODERATE:47%, BOOM:14%	8%	58%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Ka'imi Fairbairn	10.7	26%	26%
Matt Prater	0.0	19%	54%
Eddy Pineiro	10.0	17%	45%

D/ST Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Chiefs D/ST	7.6	53%	18%
Chargers D/ST	9.1	52%	17%
Commanders D/ST	7.8	24%	38%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 16 | Generated: 2025-12-20 16:32

Matchup Summary

65.0%

Win Probability

+18.0

Expected Margin

131.6

My Team (LLM Proj)

110.0

Opponent (Proj)

32.9

Margin Std Dev

120.5

My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -42.1 pts | Median: +1.4 pts | Ceiling: +42.0 pts

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Jacoby Brissett	QB	MED	21.0	4.4-27.9	↑15+: 66% \| ↓5-: 12%
Bucky Irving	RB	HIGH	14.0	5.0-23.3	↑15+: 39% \| ↓5-: 10%
Omarion Hampton	RB	HIGH	13.0	3.8-24.3	↑15+: 34% \| ↓5-: 17%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	MED	23.6	6.4-30.0	↑15+: 62% \| ↓5-: 4%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	HIGH	13.0	4.8-25.4	↑15+: 28% \| ↓5-: 11%
Jameson Williams	WR	HIGH	22.0	4.0-26.0	↑15+: 50% \| ↓5-: 15%
Juwan Johnson	TE	HIGH	9.0	2.9-16.6	↑15+: 15% \| ↓5-: 23%
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	12.0	1.0-18.0	↑15+: 19% \| ↓5-: 27%
Jason Myers	K	MED	2.0	5.3-18.8	↑15+: 25% \| ↓5-: 8%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Jordan Love	QB	MED	15.0	6.6-27.5	↑15+: 54% \| ↓5-: 5%
Tyjae Spears	RB	HIGH	10.0	2.6-18.2	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 29%
Devin Singletary	RB	HIGH	4.0	0.6-17.9	↑15+: 15% \| ↓5-: 55%
Isiah Pacheco	RB	HIGH	6.0	2.2-15.3	↑15+: 11% \| ↓5-: 44%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	HIGH	15.0	3.7-21.7	↑15+: 32% \| ↓5-: 17%
Jayden Reed	WR	HIGH	13.0	4.6-21.8	↑15+: 23% \| ↓5-: 13%
Rams D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	4.0	1.1-18.3	↑15+: 19% \| ↓5-: 33%

IR

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust	Distribution
Rashee Rice	WR	LOW	5.0	0.0-0.0	↑15+: 0% \| ↓5-: 100%

Opponent

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Baker Mayfield	QB	MED	17.1	6.5-27.7	↑15+: 59% \| ↓5-: 5%
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	HIGH	20.6	7.5-39.7	↑15+: 61% \| ↓5-: 1%
Rico Dowdle	RB	HIGH	13.1	3.3-27.4	↑15+: 31% \| ↓5-: 17%
Michael Carter	RB	HIGH	8.8	1.2-17.4	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 34%
DK Metcalf	WR	HIGH	12.7	4.9-22.5	↑15+: 33% \| ↓5-: 10%
Michael Wilson	WR	HIGH	12.5	3.3-30.6	↑15+: 30% \| ↓5-: 26%
Trey McBride	TE	MED	17.2	8.3-29.5	↑15+: 54% \| ↓5-: 0%
Jaguars D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	9.1	0.5-17.7	↑15+: 18% \| ↓5-: 30%
Harrison Butker	K	HIGH	8.2	2.9-14.7	↑15+: 9% \| ↓5-: 27%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Aaron Rodgers	QB	HIGH	14.8	5.7-25.5	↑15+: 45% \| ↓5-: 7%
Kareem Hunt	RB	HIGH	10.3	2.4-20.3	↑15+: 25% \| ↓5-: 27%
Rome Odunze	WR	LOW	0.0	0.0-0.0	↑15+: 0% \| ↓5-: 100%
Jordan Addison	WR	HIGH	12.2	5.4-21.8	↑15+: 27% \| ↓5-: 7%
Romeo Doubs	WR	HIGH	10.3	2.6-20.4	↑15+: 23% \| ↓5-: 25%
Darren Waller	TE	HIGH	12.2	3.0-23.5	↑15+: 40% \| ↓5-: 27%
Colby Parkinson	TE	HIGH	9.3	2.3-18.9	↑15+: 15% \| ↓5-: 32%

Scenario Details

Player	Position	BOOM	MODERATE	BUST	EV
Bucky Irving	RB	17% @ 24.3	59% @ 14.3	25% @ 5.9	13.9
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	27% @ 28.6	44% @ 18.4	29% @ 7.6	18.1
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	14% @ 27.6	37% @ 13.7	49% @ 7.0	12.4
Omarion Hampton	RB	25% @ 23.1	43% @ 12.1	32% @ 5.2	12.6
Jason Myers	K	25% @ 18.2	44% @ 11.8	31% @ 6.5	11.7
Juwan Johnson	TE	30% @ 14.9	45% @ 8.8	25% @ 3.7	9.4
Jameson Williams	WR	29% @ 24.4	44% @ 15.7	28% @ 5.4	15.3
Jacoby Brissett	QB	74% @ 21.4	2% @ 14.7	23% @ 5.9	17.6
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	36% @ 15.0	42% @ 8.4	22% @ 2.8	9.5

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

Player	Pos	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	4.2	12.0	BOOM	54.3%	29.9%	15.8%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	14.2	15.0	MODERATE	41.7%	35.6%	22.7%
Jordan Love	QB	17.3	15.0	MODERATE	26.7%	52.3%	20.9%
Jason Myers	K	8.1	2.0	BUST	23.7%	54.8%	21.5%
Rashee Rice	WR	0.0	5.0	BUST	23.6%	45.1%	31.2%
Juwan Johnson	TE	9.1	9.0	MODERATE	18.1%	25.4%	56.5%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	13.1	13.0	MODERATE	16.9%	61.5%	21.6%
Tyjae Spears	RB	8.7	10.0	MODERATE	16.4%	46.7%	37.0%
Jacoby Brissett	QB	18.8	21.0	BOOM	14.1%	48.6%	37.3%
Jayden Reed	WR	11.2	13.0	MODERATE	12.9%	35.1%	52.1%
Bucky Irving	RB	15.2	14.0	MODERATE	12.8%	39.0%	48.2%
Jameson Williams	WR	15.9	22.0	BOOM	12.2%	44.1%	43.7%
Isiah Pacheco	RB	9.3	6.0	BUST	11.3%	29.5%	59.2%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	19.9	23.6	BOOM	11.2%	65.8%	23.0%
Rams D/ST	D/ST	5.7	4.0	BUST	10.8%	30.7%	58.5%
Devin Singletary	RB	7.5	4.0	BUST	9.8%	31.1%	59.2%
Omarion Hampton	RB	13.2	13.0	MODERATE	8.7%	32.6%	58.7%

League Standings

Week 16 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank	Team	Record	PF (Total)	PA (Total)	+/-	This Week	Streak	Playoff %
1	Kitty's Piggy Skins	10-5	1865.5	1676.5	+189.0	4.2 vs 0.0	L1	100.0%
2	4th and pinches	10-5	1771.1	1791.0	-19.9	0.0 vs 25.6	W2	100.0%
3	Valued Customers ←	9-6	1848.4	1558.6	+289.8	25.6 vs 0.0	W5	100.0%
4	Ryan's Rowdy Team	8-7	1759.9	1729.2	+30.8	0.0 vs 4.2	W1	100.0%
5	Wookie of the Year	8-7	1740.3	1731.9	+8.4	34.4 vs 0.0	L1	0.0%
6	Meat Pistols	8-7	1515.0	1699.3	-184.3	0.0 vs 34.4	L2	0.0%
7	Torta Pounders Football Club	7-8	1730.5	1739.1	-8.6	0.0 vs 64.5	L2	0.0%
8	Moms rules	7-8	1729.4	1778.5	-49.1	64.5 vs 0.0	W1	0.0%
9	Smooth Roosters	7-8	1664.4	1677.8	-13.4	0.0 vs 30.9	W3	0.0%
10	The Warsaw Pact	6-9	1684.4	1752.0	-67.6	30.9 vs 0.0	W2	0.0%
11	Chupi and the End Zone Bandits	6-9	1584.0	1692.1	-108.1	0.0 vs 2.5	L5	0.0%
12	Auto DraftKings	4-11	1700.4	1767.4	-67.0	2.5 vs 0.0	L4	0.0%

Week 16 Matchups

Away Team	Score		Score	Home Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins	4.2	@	0.0	Ryan's Rowdy Team
4th and pinches	0.0	@	25.6	Valued Customers
Wookie of the Year	34.4	@	0.0	Meat Pistols
Torta Pounders Football Club	0.0	@	64.5	Moms rules
Smooth Roosters	0.0	@	30.9	The Warsaw Pact
Chupi and the End Zone Bandits	0.0	@	2.5	Auto DraftKings

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Cumulative Points

Week 16 Research Analysis - UPDATED Dec 20

Key Injury Updates

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) - EXPECTED TO PLAY: Practiced all 3 days (limited), told media "heel is good enough to go". First game back after 2 weeks - snap count likely but ATL matchup is ELITE.
Rashee Rice (KC) - CONCUSSION PROTOCOL: Not practicing Wed/Thu. HIGH RISK - may be OUT.
Mike Hughes (ATL CB) - OUT: Boosts MHJ and Michael Wilson's ceilings.

Matchup Deep Dives

WR/FLEX DECISION - MHJ vs McMillan vs Jayden Reed

MHJ vs ATL (15.0 proj):
ATL defense "collapsed" vs WRs - 7 games of 15+ pts over last 5 weeks
Game total 47.0 (high scoring expected)
Risk: First game back = snap count
VERDICT: START in FLEX
McMillan vs TB (13.0 proj):
TB allows 2nd-most passing yards over last 5 weeks
But: Out-targeted by Jalen Coker recently (10 vs 6)
Rookie floor concerns
VERDICT: BENCH
Jayden Reed @ CHI (13.0 proj):
Bears allow 4th-most yards to slot WRs
BUT: SNOW GAME (100% precip, 28F)
Returned from IR, still building
VERDICT: BENCH (weather concern)

Vegas-Implied Game Scripts

DET vs CHI (48.0): Jameson Williams ceiling game - highest total on roster
ARI vs ATL (47.0): Brissett + MHJ stack - dome environment
TB vs CAR (45.5): Bucky Irving smash spot
LAC vs DAL (49.5): Chargers D/ST ELITE play (DAL 32nd vs DST)

Final Confidence Tiers

LOCKED-IN STARTERS: JSN (23.6 pts banked), Jameson Williams, Brissett, Chargers D/ST CONFIDENT STARTERS: Bucky Irving, Omarion Hampton, MHJ ACCEPTABLE: Juwan Johnson (250k incentive), Jason Myers (TNF 2.0 - already played) AVOID: Rams D/ST, Isiah Pacheco, Devin Singletary

Reddit Insights

Hot Topics

Thursday Night Game Thread (11,833 comments)
Davante Adams INACTIVE (512 upvotes)
Weather concerns for TNF (1,107 upvotes)
McBrisket brunch meme trending
Rashee Rice concussion concern

Positive Buzz: Jacoby Brissett, Jameson Williams, Tyjae Spears, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Negative Buzz: Rashee Rice, Marvin Harrison Jr. (snap concerns)

Mixed Buzz: Jordan Love (snow game), Jayden Reed (snow but elite matchup)

Sources

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

Crystal Society Debates

Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 16)

Best two FA additions and who to drop for each

Round 1: Opening Arguments

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: Jason Myers, Bears D/ST | ADD: Ka'imi Fairbairn, Chargers D/ST

Playoffs require MAXIMUM CEILING plays. Fairbairn gives you a top-2 kicker floor with 50+ yard upside every week. Chargers D/ST faces a completely broken Cowboys offense that's hemorrhaging points while Bears face a high-total divisional shootout.

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Ka'imi Fairbairn, Tyler Allgeier

These moves prioritize proven weekly consistency over speculative upside. Fairbairn (K4, 11.5 PPG) gives elite insurance behind Myers, while Allgeier's 7.8 PPG floor strengthens RB depth. Dropping Bears D/ST (bad matchup) and Mariota (QB3, risky floor vs PHI) removes volatility.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: Rams D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Patriots D/ST, Chiefs D/ST

Rostering three QBs in the playoffs is a strategic error when only one starts. Converting Mariota (QB26, minimal upside) into Chiefs D/ST (Top 3, elite matchup) maximizes expected value. Upgrading from Rams D/ST to Patriots D/ST shores up defensive flexibility.

🔮 CONTRARIAN HIGH

DROP: Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Chargers D/ST, Isiah Pacheco

The consensus is obsessed with 'keeping depth' and 'weekly flexibility,' but playoff fantasy is about CEILING. Chargers vs DAL and Pacheco's playoff role with the Chiefs offer genuine league-winning upside that your current roster lacks. Championship week demands aggression.

Fact Check

✅ MULTIPLE: "FLOOR: Myers is K1 - CORRECT (87 total pts, league" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "ALL: Bears D/ST 2.9 proj bad matchup vs GB - CORRE" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "SYNTHESIS: Mariota QB26 vs Eagles - CORRECT" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "CONTRARIAN: Chargers 52% XGB boom - CORRECT" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "ALL: Cowboys allow 30+ PPG - CORRECT" CORRECT

❌ CEILING: "Drop Myers for Fairbairn (K2)" FALSE (actual: Myers is K1 (87 pts) vs Fairbairn K4 (78 pts) - REJECTED. Never drop K1.)

❌ CONTRARIAN: "Chargers play Patriots Week 17" FALSE (actual: Chargers play TEXANS Week 17, not Patriots. Schedule error.)

Round 2: Rebuttals

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: Bears D/ST | ADD: Chargers D/ST

[Ack] Fact-check correct: Myers K1 (87 pts) > Fairbairn K4 (78 pts). Retracted. [Challenge SYNTHESIS] Patriots D/ST over Chargers is wrong - Chargers have superior matchup vs DAL [Concede] FLOOR correctly identified Mariota as expendable QB3

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Chargers D/ST, Isiah Pacheco

[Ack] Validated: Myers K1 status confirmed [Challenge CEILING] Your original Myers drop would have been catastrophic [Concede] CONTRARIAN's Pacheco argument has merit - playoff ceiling matters

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Chargers D/ST, Isiah Pacheco

[Ack] Concede Chargers > Patriots for Week 16 matchup [Challenge CONTRARIAN] Week 17 Chargers schedule claim was FALSE [Concede] Chargers D/ST is correct Week 16 play regardless of Week 17

🔮 CONTRARIAN HIGH

DROP: Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Chargers D/ST, Isiah Pacheco

[Ack] Corrected: Chargers Week 17 opponent is Texans, not Patriots [Challenge CEILING] At least I didn't try to drop the K1 kicker [Concede] FLOOR's conservative approach on Myers was correct

Consensus: Unanimous

DROP: Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Chargers D/ST, Isiah Pacheco

4/4 agents agree

Dissent: 4/4 agents aligned after Round 2: Drop Bears D/ST (52% XGB boom vs DAL) and Mariota (QB3 expendable). Myers drop REJECTED by fact-check - he's K1 with 87 total points.

Week 16 starting lineup optimization

Round 1: Opening Arguments

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

The current lineup maximizes ceiling with Brissett's 72% MC BOOM rate in dome, JSN/Williams/Rice all in favorable matchups, and Hampton in dome vs DAL. No changes needed - this is an optimized ceiling lineup.

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Current starters provide strong floors: Brissett's consistent production, Irving's RB1 volume, and elite WR trio. Bench depth is adequate with Love as QB backup. No changes recommended.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Expected value analysis confirms current lineup is optimal. Brissett > Love (dome advantage), Hampton > Pacheco (weather), Williams as FLEX maximizes EV. All starters should remain.

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

Consider Love over Brissett (higher XGB boom 26.7% vs 13.7%) and Rice over McMillan at FLEX for target share upside. However, given weather concerns, consensus lineup is defensible.

Consensus: Unanimous

KEEP ALL STARTERS - Lineup is optimized

4/4 agents agree

Full lineup optimization for Week 16 playoff matchup after waiver claims (Pacheco, Reed, Chargers added)

Round 1: Opening Arguments

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

In a playoff semifinal, we need boom-or-bust ceiling plays over safe floors. Brissett's 72% MC BOOM rate in a dome environment gives us QB1 upside, while the Chargers defense facing the league's worst offense (Cowboys allowing 30+ PPG) provides elite D/ST ceiling with 55% XGB boom probability. Williams in Detroit's high-scoring dome game (49.5 total) over Reed's weather-compromised Chicago matchup maximizes our path to 130+ points.

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

This lineup prioritizes proven floors in playoff-critical slots: Brissett's elite floor in Arizona system (20+ pts in every AZ start), dome game for Hampton over weather-compromised Pacheco (68% MC bust in rain/wind), and Chargers D/ST elite matchup over Rams' risky Seattle game. Every decision minimizes bust probability while maintaining competitive scoring to match opponent's 125 pt projection.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

This lineup maximizes expected value at 125.3 pts while preserving critical ceiling through Brissett's 72% BOOM rate in dome, Williams in Detroit's elite offense, and Chargers' 55% XGB boom signal vs Cooper Rush. Hampton over Pacheco adds 5.1 EV points - the largest single optimization available - while avoiding weather disaster. The +8.5 pts of total optimization vs alternative lineups provides the edge needed for playoff advancement.

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

The consensus is fading Love on weather fears that don't match forecast reality (clear/dry), sleeping on Pacheco's volume advantage as lead back, and missing Reed's target spike with Watson out. Playoff week demands upside over 'safe' dome games - Love's 26.7% XGB boom probability and Reed's WR1 usage with Watson sidelined offer contrarian edges the field is missing.

Round 2: Rebuttals

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] Correct - Chargers are 1st in points allowed (17.7 PPG), not third-down defense. My core argument stands. [Challenge CONTRARIAN] Reed XGB boom 27.3% [Concede] CONTRARIAN correctly notes XGB gives Love higher boom (26.7%) than Brissett (13.7%), but MC's 72% boom for Brissett in dome trumps XGB signal.

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] Fair point - Brissett's Patriots starts were poor. Revised claim: 20+ pts in every ARIZONA start. [Challenge CONTRARIAN] Watson OUT [Concede] Hampton's XGB 58.8% bust is concerning, but dome environment protects floor better than Pacheco's weather game.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] No fact-check issues. All EV calculations verified. [Challenge CONTRARIAN] Weather almost perfect for GB/CHI [Concede] Rams ESPN projection (5.2) exceeds Chargers (4.4), but MC EV and XGB boom favor Chargers.

🔮 CONTRARIAN LOW

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] Made significant data errors on Reed (MC bust 43.2% not 28%, XGB boom 12.9% not 27.3%) and Watson status. These errors undermine Reed recommendation. [Challenge FLOOR] Pacheco 68% bust makes him unplayable [Concede] Given Reed data errors and Watson's uncertain status, I concede J.Williams is the safer FLEX play.

Consensus: Majority

Lineup: QB Brissett, RB1 Irving, RB2 Hampton, WR1 JSN, WR2 Rice, TE Johnson, FLEX Williams, K Myers, DST Chargers

3/4 agents agree

Marvin Harrison Jr. IR decision: Hold, drop for WR FA, or swap for different IR stash (Nabers/Skattebo/Wilson)?

Round 1: Opening Arguments

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Zero-cost lottery ticket with league-winning upside. All IR alternatives (Wilson, Nabers, Skattebo) are OUT for season. MHJ 26.8% BOOM (12.7-27.7 pts) could be championship-winning if he returns Week 17.

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: Marvin Harrison Jr. | ADD:

All IR alternatives are OUT for season (Nabers torn ACL, Skattebo ankle surgery). Since IR swap is impossible, drop MHJ for roster flexibility to grab active FA if needed.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

EV analysis: MHJ has ~25% return probability with 12.1 EV = 3.0 expected pts. This beats 0.0 from dropping. IR slot costs nothing. All alternatives unavailable.

🔮 CONTRARIAN HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Challenged consensus that swapping IR stashes helps. All alternatives (Nabers, Skattebo, Wilson) are EQUALLY or MORE likely to miss rest of season. If dropping MHJ, get ACTIVE FA, not another IR stash.

Fact Check

✅ MULTIPLE: "Malik Nabers: Torn ACL + meniscus Week 4, OUT for " CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Cam Skattebo: Ankle dislocation + tibia fracture, " CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Garrett Wilson: On IR since Week 11, effectively O" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "MHJ: NOT on IR (just inactive), but likely done fo" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "MHJ MC BOOM: 26.8%, MC EV: 12.1 pts" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "5 active WRs on roster (JSN, Rice, Williams, McMil" CORRECT

❌ CEILING: "Gannon expects MHJ to return" FALSE (actual: Technically true but experts believe he is done)

Round 2: Rebuttals

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] Fact-check confirms all IR alternatives OUT for season - validates HOLD position [Challenge FLOOR] roster flexibility [Concede] FLOOR correctly identified IR swap was impossible - all alternatives season-ending

🔽 FLOOR LOW

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] Concede IR swap strategy was flawed - all alternatives OUT for season [Challenge CEILING] zero cost [Concede] IR swap idea disproven. No better stash exists.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] EV framework validated by fact-check [Challenge FLOOR] flexibility value [Concede] If elite Week 17 streamer appears, revisit decision

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] Contrarian angle validated - IR swap was lateral move as predicted [Challenge SYNTHESIS] 25% return prob [Concede] CEILING correct about zero opportunity cost

Consensus: Unanimous

HOLD Marvin Harrison Jr. on IR

4/4 agents agree

Should we drop Rashee Rice given he's now officially OUT with a concussion? Mahomes is also out for the season. Is Rice worth holding for Week 17 (Championship) or should we drop him for another player?

Round 1: Opening Arguments

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: Rashee Rice | ADD: Keenan Allen

DROP Rice immediately. The Chiefs are eliminated (6-8), Mahomes is done for the season, and Rice is in concussion protocol. Even if he miraculously clears protocol, CBS Sports confirms 'there is no reason for him to play' with the team out of playoff contention. Zero ceiling if he's not playing. Keenan Allen gives immediate Week 16 + Week 17 upside.

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: Rashee Rice | ADD: Keenan Allen

Rice must be dropped - he's OUT Week 16 with a concussion, Mahomes is done for the season, and the Chiefs are eliminated at 6-8. CBS Sports states 'In all likelihood, he will not play again this season. There is no reason for him to.' Keenan Allen offers 11.4 season average - the safest floor replacement.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: Rashee Rice | ADD: Keenan Allen

Rice's EV for Week 17 is 0.9 pts (10% play probability × 9 pt projection with Minshew on eliminated team). Keenan Allen's EV is 9.35 pts (85% healthy × 11 pt projection). The +8.45 pt EV advantage makes this a clear drop-add for championship week.

🔮 CONTRARIAN HIGH

DROP: Rashee Rice | ADD: Keenan Allen

I wanted to find a contrarian angle, but the facts are damning: concussion protocol timeline (median 9 days) + eliminated team (6-8) + backup QB (Minshew 219 YPG career avg vs Mahomes 280+) creates a triple-lock against Rice playing meaningful snaps. Even Rice's 39% BOOM rate was WITH Mahomes - those probabilities collapse with Minshew.

Fact Check

✅ MULTIPLE: "Chiefs 6-8 record, eliminated from playoffs - CORR" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Mahomes ACL surgery Monday - CORRECT" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Rice OUT Week 16, DNP all week - CORRECT" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Keenan Allen 11.4 season average - CORRECT" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Rice 39% MC BOOM rate (with Mahomes) - CORRECT" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Concussion protocol requires 5-step clearance - CO" CORRECT

❌ SYNTHESIS: "Rice EV 1.1 pts" FALSE (actual: 0.9 pts (10% × 9 = 0.9, not 1.1))

Round 2: Rebuttals

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: Rashee Rice | ADD: Keenan Allen

[Ack] No significant fact-check issues. Core facts verified: Chiefs 6-8 eliminated, Mahomes ACL surgery, Rice OUT Week 16.

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: Rashee Rice | ADD: Keenan Allen

[Ack] All material facts verified. Rice OUT, Chiefs eliminated, Allen 11.4 avg confirmed.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: Rashee Rice | ADD: Keenan Allen

[Ack] Minor math correction accepted (Rice EV 0.9 not 1.1). This actually STRENGTHENS the case for Allen.

🔮 CONTRARIAN HIGH

DROP: Rashee Rice | ADD: Keenan Allen

[Ack] Consensus is clearly correct. No valid contrarian case exists when player is concussed on eliminated team with backup QB.

Consensus: Unanimous

DROP Rashee Rice, ADD Keenan Allen

4/4 agents agree

Should we start MHJ in FLEX, or keep McMillan or start Jayden Reed? Also evaluate waiver WR options.

Round 1: Opening Arguments

🔼 CEILING MEDIUM-HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

MHJ has highest XGB boom (42%) and elite ATL matchup (defense collapsed, CB Hughes OUT). 90th percentile 21.9 pts.

🔽 FLOOR MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

Reed has 53% MODERATE probability (safest). MHJ snap count risk, McMillan 49% bust rate.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

XGB strongly favors MHJ boom (42%). Snow kills Reed ceiling. McMillan too bust-heavy (49%).

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

McMillan is WR22 in PPG with 109 targets. One bad game doesnt erase volume. MHJ snap count is a trap.

Fact Check

✅ MULTIPLE: "MHJ XGB boom 42% - CORRECT" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "MHJ MC boom 27% - CORRECT" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "McMillan bust 49% - CORRECT" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Reed moderate 53% - CORRECT" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "ATL defense rank 26 - CORRECT" CORRECT

Round 2: Rebuttals

🔼 CEILING MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] MHJ 3.7 pt floor is risky if snap count limited [Challenge ] Reed 52% XGB bust contradicts 53% MC moderate [Concede] MHJ 3.7 pt floor is risky if snap count limited

🔽 FLOOR MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] MHJ 42% XGB boom signal is strong [Challenge ] Reed bust mean (6.3) safer than MHJ bust mean (5.2) [Concede] MHJ 42% XGB boom signal is strong

⚖️ SYNTHESIS MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] McMillan volume (109 targets) provides safety [Challenge ] MC/XGB agree on MHJ boom but contradict on Reed [Concede] McMillan volume (109 targets) provides safety

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] McMillan 48.8% bust is major red flag [Challenge ] XGB only 44% accurate - dont trust boom signal alone [Concede] McMillan 48.8% bust is major red flag

Round 3: Final Deliberation

🔼 CEILING MEDIUM-HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

XGB 42% boom is highest of all options. In playoff semi-final, ceiling > floor. MHJ 90th percentile (21.9) with elite ATL matchup (CB Hughes OUT) beats Reed's snow-capped 10% boom. Snap count risk exists but 60% snaps in elite matchup > 100% snaps in snow.

🔽 FLOOR MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

CHANGED VOTE. Was anchoring on Reed 53% moderate, but 10% boom ceiling in snow is a playoff killer. MHJ 42% boom with CB Hughes OUT creates better risk/reward. Playoff week demands upside over floor.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS MEDIUM-HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

EV confirms MHJ: 14.4 EV vs Reed 11.7 EV vs McMillan 12.7 EV. MHJ +1.7 pts over McMillan and +2.7 pts over Reed even with snap count discount.

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

CHANGED VOTE. McMillan 49% bust is too risky for playoff semi-final. Volume (109 targets) matters less when busting every other week. Sometimes contrarian move is agreeing when data is overwhelming. ATL matchup + Hughes OUT + 42% XGB boom = clear decision.

Consensus: Unanimous

4/4 agents agree

Week 16 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

10.1

Our Team MAE

17 players

13.8

Opponent MAE

9 players

0.0

Free Agent MAE

6 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 9.2

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Actual	Error
Opponent	RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	23.9	-	0.0	-23.9
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	15.9	22.0	0.0	-22.0
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	18.8	21.0	0.0	-21.0
Opponent	TE	Trey McBride	16.8	-	0.0	-16.8
Opponent	QB	Baker Mayfield	16.6	-	0.0	-16.6
Opponent	RB	Rico Dowdle	15.2	-	0.0	-15.2
Our Team	QB	Jordan Love	17.3	15.0	0.0	-15.0
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	14.2	15.0	0.0	-15.0
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	15.2	14.0	0.0	-14.0
Opponent	WR	DK Metcalf	13.5	-	0.0	-13.5
Opponent	WR	Michael Wilson	13.4	-	0.0	-13.4
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	13.1	13.0	0.0	-13.0
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	13.2	13.0	0.0	-13.0
Our Team	WR	Jayden Reed	11.2	13.0	0.0	-13.0
Our Team	D/ST	Chargers D/ST	4.2	12.0	0.0	-12.0
Opponent	RB	Michael Carter	11.0	-	0.0	-11.0
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	8.7	10.0	0.0	-10.0
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	9.1	9.0	0.0	-9.0
Opponent	K	Harrison Butker	8.0	-	0.0	-8.0
Our Team	RB	Isiah Pacheco	9.3	6.0	0.0	-6.0
Opponent	D/ST	Jaguars D/ST	5.6	-	0.0	-5.6
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	0.0	5.0	0.0	-5.0
Our Team	RB	Devin Singletary	7.5	4.0	0.0	-4.0
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	19.9	23.6	23.6	+0.0
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.1	2.0	2.0	+0.0
Our Team	D/ST	Rams D/ST	5.7	4.0	4.0	+0.0
Free Agent	RB	Isiah Pacheco	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
Free Agent	K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
Free Agent	K	Eddy Pineiro	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Patriots D/ST	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Chargers D/ST	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Chiefs D/ST	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Week 15 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_014 (2025-12-15)

5.7

Our Team MAE

18 players

8.6

Free Agent MAE

3 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 6.2

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Actual	Error
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.5	10.0	24.0	+14.0
Free Agent	TE	Harold Fannin Jr.	0.0	-	12.0	+12.0
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	13.9	17.0	26.4	+9.4
Free Agent	D/ST	Steelers D/ST	0.0	-	9.0	+9.0
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	13.2	13.0	4.5	-8.5
Our Team	D/ST	Bears D/ST	6.6	10.0	18.0	+8.0
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	15.2	16.0	8.1	-7.9
Our Team	RB	Devin Singletary	10.8	10.0	2.4	-7.6
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	13.9	13.0	20.6	+7.6
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	20.6	25.0	18.3	-6.7
Our Team	WR	Luther Burden III	8.1	8.0	14.4	+6.4
Our Team	QB	Marcus Mariota	18.1	21.0	14.7	-6.3
Our Team	D/ST	Rams D/ST	4.2	5.0	-1.0	-6.0
Free Agent	RB	Chuba Hubbard	0.0	-	4.8	+4.8
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	9.7	11.0	7.0	-4.0
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	17.2	16.0	12.1	-3.9
Our Team	TE	Hunter Henry	10.3	6.0	2.8	-3.2
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	11.7	10.0	7.5	-2.5
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	10.1	7.0	5.6	-1.4
Our Team	QB	Jordan Love	14.8	14.0	13.9	-0.1
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 16 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.