Week 16 Fantasy Football Analysis

Valued Customers

Generated: 2025-12-20 16:33

65%
Win Probability
+18.0
Projected Margin
CI: [-2.0 to +38.0]
2
Boom Potential
Marvin Harrison Jr., Chargers D/ST
4
Bust Risk
Juwan Johnson (56%), Bucky Irving (48%), Jameson Williams (44%), Omarion Hampton (59%)

Start/Sit Decisions

Locked Slots (players already played):
WR: 🔒 Jaxon Smith-Njigba 23.6 pts
K: 🔒 Jason Myers 2.0 pts
Pending Decisions:
WR1_LOCKED: Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba over N/A LOCKED (TNF 23.6 pts). No change possible.
WR2_STATUS: Start Jameson Williams over N/A Highest unlocked WR (22.0 pts). DET game has highest total (51.5).
K_LOCKED: Start Jason Myers over N/A LOCKED (TNF 2.0 pts). No change possible.
QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Jordan Love Higher projection (21.0 vs 15.0). ATL dome game, elite matchup.
RB1: Start Bucky Irving over Omarion Hampton Higher projection (14.0 vs 13.0). Clear lead back vs CAR.
RB2: Start Omarion Hampton over Tyjae Spears Higher projection (13.0 vs 10.0). Better opportunity share.
D/ST: Start Chargers D/ST over Rams D/ST Higher projection (12.0 vs 4.0). DAL 32nd vs D/ST, XGB 55% boom.
FLEX: Start Marvin Harrison Jr. over Tetairoa McMillan MHJ EXPECTED TO PLAY (15.0 > 13.0). ATL defense collapsed vs WRs - 7 games of 15+ pts in 5 weeks. CB Hughes OUT. Snap count risk but ceiling play for playoffs.

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
QB Jacoby Brissett ATL18.821.0BOOMMEDIUM
RB Bucky Irving CAR15.214.0MODERATEMEDIUM
RB Omarion Hampton DAL13.213.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba LAR19.923.6BOOMMEDIUM
WR Jameson Williams PIT15.922.0BOOMMEDIUM
TE Juwan Johnson NYJ9.19.0MODERATEMEDIUM
K Jason Myers LAR8.12.0BUSTMEDIUM
D/ST Chargers D/ST DAL4.212.0BOOMMEDIUM
WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ATL14.215.0MODERATEMEDIUM

Waiver Wire

Semi-finals roster optimization - maximize ceiling for championship week positioning

#1 Hunter Henry (TE, NE)
DROP: Juwan Johnson (if seeking upgrade)

Most consistent TE on waivers. Rolling avg (10.5) above season avg (9.9). Better floor than Juwan Johnson who faces wind at MetLife. Week 17: vs BUF (...

#2 49ers D/ST (D/ST, SF)
DROP: Rams D/ST

SCORCHING HOT trend - rolling avg 11.1 vs season avg 3.6 (208% improvement). Week 17 vs DET is tough but IND matchup this week is solid. Drop Rams D/S...

#3 Rashid Shaheed (WR, SEA)
DROP: Conditional - bench depth

Already played TNF - check actual score. Deep threat with big-play upside. Neutral trend shows consistency. Could be WR insurance if Rashee Rice ruled...

⚠️ Avoid: Keenan Allen, Oronde Gadsden II, Quentin Johnston, Emanuel Wilson

See Waivers tab for full analysis and injury opportunities.

Executive Summary

Week 16 playoff semifinal against 4th and pinches (10-5). Our 9-6 Valued Customers face a critical matchup with ESPN projecting us as 2-point underdogs (123.5 vs 125.5). Key advantage: Jacoby Brissett has emerged as a matchup-proof QB3, posting 20+ points in every Arizona start, facing a vulnerable Falcons defense in a dome. The Chargers D/ST draw the best matchup in fantasy against a broken Cowboys offense (32nd worst). Concerns center on Rashee Rice's ceiling capped by Mahomes injury (Minshew starts) and MHJ remaining OUT with a heel injury.

Key Insights

Matchup Status (Week 16)

25.6 - 0.0 vs 4th and pinches

Games Completed (3)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs LLM
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR ✓ 23.6 19.9 23.6 0.0
Jason Myers K K ✓ 2.0 8.1 2.0 0.0
Rams D/ST (bench) D/ST BE ✓ 4.0 5.7 4.0 0.0

Games Pending (14)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB 18.8 21.0
Bucky Irving RB RB 15.2 14.0
Omarion Hampton RB RB 13.2 13.0
Tetairoa McMillan WR WR 13.1 13.0
Juwan Johnson TE TE 9.1 9.0
Jameson Williams WR RB/WR/TE 15.9 22.0
Chargers D/ST D/ST D/ST 4.2 12.0
Devin Singletary (bench) RB BE 7.5 4.0
Isiah Pacheco (bench) RB BE 9.3 6.0
Jayden Reed (bench) WR BE 11.2 13.0
Jordan Love (bench) QB BE 17.3 15.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) WR BE 14.2 15.0
Tyjae Spears (bench) RB BE 8.7 10.0
Rashee Rice (bench) WR IR 0.0 5.0
25.6 Actual
131.6 LLM Total
115.1 ESPN Total

Opponent: 4th and pinches

Opponent Games Completed (1)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs ESPN
Colby Parkinson (bench) TE BE ✓ 4.1 9.6 --- -5.5

Opponent Games Pending (15)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Baker Mayfield QB QB 16.6 ---
Michael Carter RB RB 11.0 ---
Rico Dowdle RB RB 15.2 ---
DK Metcalf WR WR 13.5 ---
Michael Wilson WR WR 13.4 ---
Trey McBride TE TE 16.8 ---
Jahmyr Gibbs RB RB/WR/TE 23.9 ---
Harrison Butker K K 8.0 ---
Jaguars D/ST D/ST D/ST 5.6 ---
Aaron Rodgers (bench) QB BE 14.8 ---
Darren Waller (bench) TE BE 9.3 ---
Jordan Addison (bench) WR BE 10.5 ---
Kareem Hunt (bench) RB BE 11.0 ---
Rome Odunze (bench) WR BE 0.0 ---
Romeo Doubs (bench) WR BE 9.6 ---
0.0 Opp Actual
110.0 Opp LLM Total
124.0 Opp ESPN Total
Projected Margin: +21.6 pts

Jordan Love (GB vs CHI)

Projections: ESPN 17.3 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 21% BOOM / 53% MODERATE. XGB: 27% BOOM / 21% BUST. SNOW GAME (100% precip, 28F, 10mph wind). Weather suppresses passing upside significantly. Despite decent game total (46.5), snow conditions favor running game. Mode: MODERATE (weather-adjusted down). Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-24).

Context: O/U: 46.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN14.817.013.9-0.9
14CHI17.618.019.3+1.6
13DET15.718.225.8+10.0
12MIN17.4-7.1-10.4
11NYG16.3-17.7+1.3
10PHI17.0-7.8-9.1
9CAR18.1-9.0-9.1
8PIT17.1-28.3+11.2
7ARI17.4-13.4-4.0
6CIN19.3-15.0-4.4
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL18.6-26.3+7.7
3CLE16.0-11.1-4.9
2WSH17.6-20.9+3.3
1DET14.9-15.9+1.0
  • Trending up: 19.7 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.51)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 18.8 | LLM 21.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 74% BOOM (historical). XGB: 14% BOOM (this week). MC heavily favors boom, XGB conservative. Vegas #5 QB (18.3), game total 48.5. High-scoring game script + dome environment. Trust MC historical pattern given favorable game environment. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 21.0 pts (within BOOM range 17-32).

Context: O/U: 48.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 37% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU13.916.020.6+6.7
14LAR15.319.019.0+3.7
13TB17.220.519.6+2.4
12JAX16.7-18.7+1.9
11SF17.9-21.9+3.9
10SEA15.3-19.4+4.2
9DAL19.4-24.8+5.4
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB16.6-19.8+3.2
6IND13.4-20.7+7.3
5TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
4SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
3SF0.0-0.0+0.0
2CAR0.0-0.2+0.2
1NO0.1-0.0-0.1
  • 6-game streak of beating projections
  • Averaging 12.3 pts vs 9.7 projected (+27%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.85)
  • Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Bucky Irving (TB vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 17% BOOM / 59% MODERATE. XGB: 13% BOOM / 48% BUST. Clear lead back, good game total (45.5), clear weather. CAR defense rank 22 (below average for RBs). XGB overly pessimistic historically. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.0 pts (within MODERATE range 7-20).

Context: O/U: 45.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 59% | BOOM: 17%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15ATL15.214.08.1-7.1
14NO16.416.016.1-0.3
13ARI11.812.016.1+4.3
12LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
11BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
10NE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
8NO0.0-0.0+0.0
7DET0.0-0.0+0.0
6SF0.0-0.0+0.0
5SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
4PHI17.5-25.5+8.0
3NYJ17.9-13.9-4.0
2HOU15.9-18.1+2.2
1ATL17.3-14.5-2.8
  • Trending up: 13.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
  • Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs KC)

Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 14% BOOM / 61% MODERATE. XGB: 16% BOOM / 37% BUST. ELITE matchup vs KC (rank 6 - 6th most pts allowed to RBs). BUT low game total (37.5) limits opportunities. Conflicting signals - great matchup, bad environment. Mode: MODERATE (matchup upside capped by low total). Projection: 10.0 pts (within MODERATE range 5-14).

Context: O/U: 37.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 37% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15SF10.06.05.6-4.4
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 5-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs DAL)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 25% BOOM / 43% MODERATE. XGB: 9% BOOM / 59% BUST. Highest game total (49.5) but DAL defense rank 25 (tough). Game script favors passing but dome environment helps. Mode: MODERATE (high floor). Projection: 13.0 pts (within MODERATE range 7-17).

Context: O/U: 49.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 59% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15KC11.710.07.5-4.2
14PHI12.18.014.7+2.6
13LV0.00.00.0+0.0
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
10PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
9TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
8MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
7IND0.0-0.0+0.0
6MIA0.0-0.0+0.0
5WSH18.6-13.0-5.6
4NYG16.7-27.5+10.8
3DEN12.2-24.9+12.7
2LV15.7-3.5-12.2
1KC14.7-8.1-6.6
  • Trending up: 7.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.42)
  • Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Devin Singletary (NYG vs MIN)

Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 4.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 18% BOOM / 61% BUST. XGB: 10% BOOM / 58% BUST. Both models agree on bust risk. MIN defense rank 17 (average), dome environment helps. Limited snap share and touches hurt floor. Mode: BUST. Projection: 4.0 pts (within BUST range 0-8).

Context: O/U: 43.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 59% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15WSH10.86.02.4-8.4
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (KC vs TEN)

Projections: ESPN 9.3 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 3% BOOM / 70% BUST. XGB: 12% BOOM / 60% BUST. Both models agree on bust. Low game total (37.5), TEN defense rank 26 (solid vs RBs). Committee usage limits upside. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 0-11).

Context: O/U: 37.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 59% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC7.2-2.1-5.1
14HOU8.3-3.0-5.3
13DAL9.7-5.3-4.4
12IND0.0-0.0+0.0
11DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
8WSH11.4-5.8-5.6
7LV11.5-12.4+0.9
6DET8.9-6.1-2.8
5JAX7.7-8.6+0.9
4BAL9.2-12.8+3.6
3NYG11.1-5.8-5.3
2PHI10.9-3.9-7.0
1LAC12.8-4.8-8.0
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
  • Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
  • Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 19.9 | LLM 23.6 (BOOM)

Reasoning: GAME COMPLETED - Actual score: 23.6 pts (BOOM). TNF performance exceeded ESPN projection of 19.9.

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND20.622.018.3-2.3
14ATL20.922.028.1+7.2
13MIN21.924.04.3-17.6
12TEN21.3-37.1+15.8
11LAR23.0-20.6-2.4
10ARI22.0-20.3-1.7
9WSH24.5-22.0-2.5
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU20.0-26.3+6.3
6JAX17.9-30.2+12.3
5TB15.9-27.2+11.3
4ARI16.4-13.0-3.4
3NO15.5-20.6+5.1
2PIT14.4-18.3+3.9
1SF14.7-19.4+4.7
  • Averaging 20.4 pts vs 17.9 projected (+14%)
  • Trending down: 16.9 avg (last 3) vs 26.0 (prior 3)
  • Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs TB)

Projections: ESPN 13.1 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 14% BOOM / 49% BUST / 37% MODERATE. XGB: 17% BOOM / 22% BUST. Practicing Thursday (ankle/foot). ATL defense rank 26. Good game total (48.5). May see increased targets if MHJ limited. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 13.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-19).

Context: O/U: 48.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15NO13.211.04.5-8.7
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13LAR13.213.011.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 14.2 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM (historical) / 43% MODERATE. XGB: 42% BOOM (this week) / 23% BUST. UPDATED: MHJ practiced all 3 days (limited), told media "heel is good enough to go" - EXPECTED TO PLAY [azcardinals.com]. ATL defense has collapsed vs WRs - surrendered 7 games of 15+ pts over last 5 weeks, CB Mike Hughes OUT [profootballnetwork.com]. Game total 47.0 (high scoring expected). BUT first game back after 2 weeks = snap count likely. Mode: MODERATE (injury caution despite favorable matchup). Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-18).

Context: O/U: 48.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU0.00.00.0+0.0
14LAR0.00.00.0+0.0
13TB13.714.012.9-0.8
12JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
11SF0.0-0.0+0.0
10SEA13.3-14.3+1.0
9DAL13.3-22.6+9.3
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB12.5-7.8-4.7
6IND11.9-5.2-6.7
5TEN12.8-13.8+1.0
4SEA11.3-18.6+7.3
3SF12.7-7.4-5.3
2CAR14.0-4.7-9.3
1NO13.9-18.1+4.2
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs TEN)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 5.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 39% BOOM / 37% BUST. XGB: 24% BOOM / 31% BUST. CONCUSSION PROTOCOL - not practicing Wed/Thu. TEN defense rank 29 (3rd toughest vs WR). Low game total (37.5). Per Reddit: "Rashee Rice (concussion) is not practicing on Thursday" [r/fantasyfootball]. HIGH RISK - may be OUT. IF ACTIVE: significantly limited effectiveness expected. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within BUST range, reflecting injury risk). Monitor Friday report.

Context: O/U: 37.5

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 31% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC17.211.012.1-5.1
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
  • Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs PIT)

Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 22.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 29% BOOM / 44% MODERATE. XGB: 12% BOOM / 43% BUST. LINEUP LOCK per ESPN. Highest game total (52.5) in favorable passing environment. PIT defense rank 21 (below average). MC shows boom upside, XGB overly conservative historically. Detroit passing attack elite. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 22.0 pts (within BOOM range 17-30).

Context: O/U: 52.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAR13.918.026.4+12.5
14DAL13.817.317.3+3.5
13GB11.815.126.9+15.1
12NYG12.9-0.0-12.9
11PHI12.6-19.7+7.1
10WSH12.1-23.9+11.8
9MIN11.0-16.6+5.6
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7TB13.2-0.0-13.2
6KC10.7-18.6+7.9
5CIN11.8-2.0-9.8
4CLE10.7-5.7-5.0
3BAL12.9-6.3-6.6
2CHI13.0-18.8+5.8
1GB12.9-6.6-6.3
  • 3-game streak of beating projections
  • Trending up: 23.5 avg (last 3) vs 14.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.79)
  • Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Jayden Reed (GB vs CHI)

Projections: ESPN 11.2 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 10% BOOM / 66% MODERATE. XGB: 13% BOOM / 52% BUST. CONFLICTING: Elite matchup (CHI rank 30 vs WR) BUT snow game (100% precip). Bears WRs Odunze/Burden OUT - Packers may throw to stay ahead. Snow typically hurts passing, but elite matchup too good. Mode: MODERATE (weather-adjusted from potential boom). Projection: 13.0 pts (within MODERATE range 7-20).

Context: O/U: 46.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 10%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN10.0-10.5+0.5
14CHI7.7-9.3+1.6
13DET0.0-0.0+0.0
12MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
11NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
10PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
9CAR0.0-0.0+0.0
8PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
7ARI0.0-0.0+0.0
6CIN0.0-0.0+0.0
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3CLE0.0-0.0+0.0
2WSH11.3-0.0-11.3
1DET11.2-13.5+2.3
  • Averaging 2.2 pts vs 2.7 projected (-17%)
  • Trending up: 6.6 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.10)
  • Season high: 13.5 pts in Week 1

Juwan Johnson (NO vs NYJ)

Projections: ESPN 9.1 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 30% BOOM / 45% MODERATE. XGB: 18% BOOM / 57% BUST. Wind game at MetLife (12mph sustained, 23mph gusts). NYJ defense rank 16 (average vs TE). Wind affects deep balls but TE targets often intermediate. Also has 250k bonus for 8 catches - motivation. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts (within MODERATE range 5-13).

Context: O/U: 40.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15CAR9.710.07.0-2.7
14TB9.710.07.8-1.9
13MIA8.711.08.9+0.2
12ATL9.3-10.6+1.3
11BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
10CAR8.9-19.2+10.2
9LAR8.3-12.1+3.8
8TB9.6-10.3+0.7
7CHI7.5-12.9+5.4
6NE7.9-1.5-6.4
5NYG7.9-3.7-4.2
4BUF11.1-5.8-5.3
3SEA10.6-11.1+0.5
2SF9.1-15.9+6.8
1ARI7.3-15.6+8.3
  • Averaging 9.5 pts vs 8.4 projected (+13%)
  • Trending down: 7.9 avg (last 3) vs 9.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs CHI

Projections: ESPN 17.3 | LLM 15.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21%

Notes: MC: 21% BOOM / 53% MODERATE. XGB: 27% BOOM / 21% BUST. SNOW GAME (100% precip, 28F, 10mph wind). Weather suppresses passing upside significantly. Despite decent game total (46.5), snow conditions favor running game. Mode: MODERATE (weather-adjusted down). Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-24).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN14.817.013.9-0.9
14CHI17.618.019.3+1.6
13DET15.718.225.8+10.0
12MIN17.4-7.1-10.4
11NYG16.3-17.7+1.3
10PHI17.0-7.8-9.1
9CAR18.1-9.0-9.1
8PIT17.1-28.3+11.2
7ARI17.4-13.4-4.0
6CIN19.3-15.0-4.4
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL18.6-26.3+7.7
3CLE16.0-11.1-4.9
2WSH17.6-20.9+3.3
1DET14.9-15.9+1.0
  • Trending up: 19.7 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.51)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs TB

Projections: ESPN 13.1 | LLM 13.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 14% BOOM / 49% BUST / 37% MODERATE. XGB: 17% BOOM / 22% BUST. Practicing Thursday (ankle/foot). ATL defense rank 26. Good game total (48.5). May see increased targets if MHJ limited. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 13.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-19).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15NO13.211.04.5-8.7
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13LAR13.213.011.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Rashee Rice (WR) - KC vs TEN

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 5.0

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 31%

Notes: MC: 39% BOOM / 37% BUST. XGB: 24% BOOM / 31% BUST. CONCUSSION PROTOCOL - not practicing Wed/Thu. TEN defense rank 29 (3rd toughest vs WR). Low game total (37.5). Per Reddit: "Rashee Rice (concussion) is not practicing on Thursday" [r/fantasyfootball]. HIGH RISK - may be OUT. IF ACTIVE: significantly limited effectiveness expected. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within BUST range, reflecting injury risk). Monitor Friday report.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC17.211.012.1-5.1
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
  • Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs KC

Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 10.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 37%

Notes: MC: 14% BOOM / 61% MODERATE. XGB: 16% BOOM / 37% BUST. ELITE matchup vs KC (rank 6 - 6th most pts allowed to RBs). BUT low game total (37.5) limits opportunities. Conflicting signals - great matchup, bad environment. Mode: MODERATE (matchup upside capped by low total). Projection: 10.0 pts (within MODERATE range 5-14).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15SF10.06.05.6-4.4
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 5-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Rams D/ST (D/ST) - LAR vs SEA

Projections: ESPN 5.7 | LLM 4.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 58%

Notes: MC: 22% BOOM / 40% BUST. XGB: 11% BOOM / 59% BUST. Already played TNF - JSN dropped 23.6 on them. Seattle offense efficient. Mode: BUST. Projection: 4.0 pts (actual from game).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DET4.24.0-1.0-5.2
14ARI6.99.06.0-0.9
13CAR7.510.01.0-6.5
12TB5.7-20.0+14.3
11SEA5.4-5.0-0.4
10SF6.4-5.0-1.4
9NO8.2-10.0+1.8
7JAX6.7-9.0+2.3
6BAL6.2-16.0+9.8
5SF7.0--2.0-9.0
4IND5.7-6.0+0.3
3PHI5.2-7.0+1.8
2TEN7.4-9.0+1.6
1HOU5.6-12.0+6.4
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 7.4 pts vs 6.3 projected (+17%)
  • Trending down: 2.0 avg (last 3) vs 10.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
  • Season high: 20.0 pts in Week 12

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs MIN

Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 4.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 59%

Notes: MC: 18% BOOM / 61% BUST. XGB: 10% BOOM / 58% BUST. Both models agree on bust risk. MIN defense rank 17 (average), dome environment helps. Limited snap share and touches hurt floor. Mode: BUST. Projection: 4.0 pts (within BUST range 0-8).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15WSH10.86.02.4-8.4
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (RB) - KC vs TEN

Projections: ESPN 9.3 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 59%

Notes: MC: 3% BOOM / 70% BUST. XGB: 12% BOOM / 60% BUST. Both models agree on bust. Low game total (37.5), TEN defense rank 26 (solid vs RBs). Committee usage limits upside. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within BUST range 0-11).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC7.2-2.1-5.1
14HOU8.3-3.0-5.3
13DAL9.7-5.3-4.4
12IND0.0-0.0+0.0
11DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
8WSH11.4-5.8-5.6
7LV11.5-12.4+0.9
6DET8.9-6.1-2.8
5JAX7.7-8.6+0.9
4BAL9.2-12.8+3.6
3NYG11.1-5.8-5.3
2PHI10.9-3.9-7.0
1LAC12.8-4.8-8.0
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
  • Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
  • Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jayden Reed (WR) - GB vs CHI

Projections: ESPN 11.2 | LLM 13.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 10%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52%

Notes: MC: 10% BOOM / 66% MODERATE. XGB: 13% BOOM / 52% BUST. CONFLICTING: Elite matchup (CHI rank 30 vs WR) BUT snow game (100% precip). Bears WRs Odunze/Burden OUT - Packers may throw to stay ahead. Snow typically hurts passing, but elite matchup too good. Mode: MODERATE (weather-adjusted from potential boom). Projection: 13.0 pts (within MODERATE range 7-20).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN10.0-10.5+0.5
14CHI7.7-9.3+1.6
13DET0.0-0.0+0.0
12MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
11NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
10PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
9CAR0.0-0.0+0.0
8PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
7ARI0.0-0.0+0.0
6CIN0.0-0.0+0.0
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3CLE0.0-0.0+0.0
2WSH11.3-0.0-11.3
1DET11.2-13.5+2.3
  • Averaging 2.2 pts vs 2.7 projected (-17%)
  • Trending up: 6.6 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.10)
  • Season high: 13.5 pts in Week 1

High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

Jaguars D/ST (D/ST): 48% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

PlayerPosTeamESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%Threat
Jaguars D/ST D/ST JAX 5.6 9.1 48% 32% 20% HIGH
DK Metcalf WR PIT 13.5 12.7 30% 50% 20% MEDIUM
Baker Mayfield QB TB 16.6 17.2 18% 59% 23% LOW
Trey McBride TE ARI 16.8 17.2 17% 63% 20% LOW
Harrison Butker K KC 8.0 8.3 16% 26% 57% LOW
Michael Carter RB ARI 11.0 8.8 16% 45% 39% LOW
Rico Dowdle RB CAR 15.2 13.1 14% 59% 27% LOW
Michael Wilson WR ARI 13.4 12.5 8% 36% 56% LOW
Jahmyr Gibbs RB DET 23.9 20.5 7% 23% 70% LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Jaguars D/ST: MC (BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 42%) | XGB (Boom 48% | Bust 20%)

DK Metcalf: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 21%) | XGB (Boom 30% | Bust 20%)

Baker Mayfield: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 52% | BOOM: 14%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 23%)

Trey McBride: MC (BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 17% | Bust 20%)

Harrison Butker: MC (BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 46% | BOOM: 25%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 57%)

Michael Carter: MC (BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 30%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 39%)

Rico Dowdle: MC (BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 19%) | XGB (Boom 14% | Bust 27%)

Michael Wilson: MC (BUST: 55% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 8% | Bust 56%)

Jahmyr Gibbs: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 24%) | XGB (Boom 7% | Bust 70%)

Add/Drop Recommendations

Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster

🎯 Priority Pickups (Injury/Opportunity Based)

Semi-finals roster optimization - maximize ceiling for championship week positioning

#1 Hunter Henry (TE, NE)
vs vs BAL (Average (BAL 16th vs TE))
ESPN: 10.4 Trend: NEUTRAL DROP: Juwan Johnson (if seeking upgrade)

Most consistent TE on waivers. Rolling avg (10.5) above season avg (9.9). Better floor than Juwan Johnson who faces wind at MetLife. Week 17: vs BUF (17th vs TE) - solid playoff matchup.

Week 17: vs BUF - 17th vs TE, steady option

#2 49ers D/ST (D/ST, SF)
vs vs IND (Good (IND turnover-prone))
ESPN: 4.7 Trend: HOT (+208%) DROP: Rams D/ST

SCORCHING HOT trend - rolling avg 11.1 vs season avg 3.6 (208% improvement). Week 17 vs DET is tough but IND matchup this week is solid. Drop Rams D/ST who just gave up 23.6 to JSN.

Week 17: vs DET - tough but they are peaking at right time

#3 Rashid Shaheed (WR, SEA)
vs vs LAR (Average (LAR 24th vs WR))
ESPN: 9.7 Trend: NEUTRAL DROP: Conditional - bench depth

Already played TNF - check actual score. Deep threat with big-play upside. Neutral trend shows consistency. Could be WR insurance if Rashee Rice ruled OUT.

Week 17: Check Week 17 matchup if picking up

#4 Evan McPherson (K, CIN)
vs vs MIA (Good (CIN offense productive))
ESPN: 8.0 Trend: HOT (+55%) DROP: None needed (if have K spot)

HOT STREAK - rolling 12.7 vs season 8.2. CIN offense moving ball. Could upgrade from Jason Myers (2.0 TNF). Week 17 at DEN - dome game, reliable.

Week 17: at DEN - dome game, high floor

⚠️ Players to Avoid

Keenan Allen (WR)
COLD trend - rolling 7.1 vs season 11.4 (-38%). Only add if desperate for WR depth.
Oronde Gadsden II (TE)
COLD trend - rolling 5.9 vs season 9.4 (-37%). Inconsistent target share.
Quentin Johnston (WR)
COLD trend - rolling 6.4 vs season 11.3 (-43%). Questionable status. Boom/bust profile unreliable for playoffs.
Emanuel Wilson (RB)
COLD trend - rolling 3.4 vs season 5.5. Snow game at CHI. Josh Jacobs handcuff only.
Devin Neal (RB)
IR designation - not playing Week 16. Was HOT trend but now injured.
Jayden Daniels (QB)
OUT - not playing Week 16.
Kyler Murray (QB)
INJURY_RESERVE - not playing.

📋 Quick Summary

  • ADD Hunter Henry, DROP Juwan Johnson - TE upgrade with better floor
  • ADD 49ers D/ST, DROP Rams D/ST - HOT trend vs busted Rams
  • MONITOR Rashee Rice - if OUT Friday, add Hollywood Brown or Xavier Worthy
  • STASH Evan McPherson if K streaming

MC-Based Analysis (Auto-Generated)

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (7): Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (36 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Isiah Pacheco (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Jayden Reed (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts))
ADD Chiefs D/ST D/ST,
Boom%53%
Bust%18%
EV7.6
BUST: 26% (-4-8) MODERATE: 44% (0-12) BOOM: 30% (6-21)
DROP Rashee Rice WR
Boom%24%
Bust%31%
EV0.0
OUT: 100% (0-0)
ADD Chargers D/ST D/ST,
Boom%52%
Bust%17%
EV9.1
BUST: 24% (-3-9) MODERATE: 44% (2-14) BOOM: 32% (7-22)
ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,
Boom%47%
Bust%20%
EV12.0
BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (8-20) BOOM: 14% (13-28)
ADD Jayden Daniels QB,
Boom%34%
Bust%30%
EV0.0
OUT: 100% (0-0)
ADD Zach Ertz TE,
Boom%28%
Bust%24%
EV10.2
BUST: 17% (-0-6) MODERATE: 50% (4-13) BOOM: 34% (11-23)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

PlayerPosTeamESPNBoom%Bust%Own%
Chiefs D/ST D/ST 7.6 53% 18% 0.0%
Chargers D/ST D/ST 9.1 52% 17% 0.0%
J.K. Dobbins RB 12.0 47% 20% 0.0%
Jayden Daniels QB 0.0 34% 30% 0.0%
Zach Ertz TE 10.2 28% 24% 0.0%
Evan Engram TE 7.9 27% 24% 0.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn K 10.7 26% 26% 0.0%
Commanders D/ST D/ST 7.8 24% 38% 0.0%
Isiah Pacheco RB 8.0 22% 28% 0.0%
Patriots D/ST D/ST 8.8 22% 43% 0.0%
Bears D/ST D/ST 8.5 20% 30% 0.0%
Matt Prater K 0.0 19% 54% 0.0%
Cooper Kupp WR 10.0 18% 48% 0.0%
Devin Neal RB 9.6 18% 45% 0.0%
Eddy Pineiro K 10.0 17% 45% 0.0%

QB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Jayden Daniels 0.0 OUT:100% 34% 30%
Justin Fields 16.4 BUST:40%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30% 14% 50%
Sam Darnold 15.4 BUST:38%, MODERATE:37%, BOOM:24% 13% 44%
Kyler Murray 16.9 BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25% 11% 54%

RB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
J.K. Dobbins 12.0 BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14% 47% 20%
Isiah Pacheco 8.0 BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3% 22% 28%
Devin Neal 9.6 BUST:35%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:19% 18% 45%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. 7.4 BUST:41%, MODERATE:56%, BOOM:2% 16% 45%
Trey Benson 8.8 BUST:33%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24% 12% 57%
Emanuel Wilson 7.7 BUST:56%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:10% 9% 60%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 9.4 BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12% 8% 61%

WR Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Cooper Kupp 10.0 BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12% 18% 48%
Quentin Johnston 11.8 BUST:29%, MODERATE:54%, BOOM:18% 15% 39%
Garrett Wilson 14.9 BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:22% 15% 48%
Rashid Shaheed 10.3 BUST:28%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:30% 14% 53%
Keenan Allen 11.7 BUST:69%, MODERATE:22%, BOOM:9% 9% 56%

TE Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Zach Ertz 10.2 BUST:17%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:34% 28% 24%
Evan Engram 7.9 BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20% 27% 24%
Hunter Henry 9.6 BUST:51%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% 8% 62%
Oronde Gadsden II 9.4 BUST:39%, MODERATE:47%, BOOM:14% 8% 58%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 10.7 26% 26%
Matt Prater 0.0 19% 54%
Eddy Pineiro 10.0 17% 45%

D/ST Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Chiefs D/ST 7.6 53% 18%
Chargers D/ST 9.1 52% 17%
Commanders D/ST 7.8 24% 38%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 16 | Generated: 2025-12-20 16:32

Matchup Summary

65.0%

Win Probability

+18.0
Expected Margin
131.6
My Team (LLM Proj)
110.0
Opponent (Proj)
32.9
Margin Std Dev
120.5
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -42.1 pts | Median: +1.4 pts | Ceiling: +42.0 pts

Margin Distribution

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB MED 21.0 4.4-27.9 ↑15+: 66% | ↓5-: 12% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB HIGH 14.0 5.0-23.3 ↑15+: 39% | ↓5-: 10% Bucky Irving
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 13.0 3.8-24.3 ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 17% Omarion Hampton
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR MED 23.6 6.4-30.0 ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 4% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Tetairoa McMillan WR HIGH 13.0 4.8-25.4 ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 11% Tetairoa McMillan
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 22.0 4.0-26.0 ↑15+: 50% | ↓5-: 15% Jameson Williams
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 9.0 2.9-16.6 ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 23% Juwan Johnson
Chargers D/ST D/ST HIGH 12.0 1.0-18.0 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 27% Chargers D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 2.0 5.3-18.8 ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 8% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love QB MED 15.0 6.6-27.5 ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 5% Jordan Love
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 10.0 2.6-18.2 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 29% Tyjae Spears
Devin Singletary RB HIGH 4.0 0.6-17.9 ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 55% Devin Singletary
Isiah Pacheco RB HIGH 6.0 2.2-15.3 ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 44% Isiah Pacheco
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR HIGH 15.0 3.7-21.7 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 17% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Jayden Reed WR HIGH 13.0 4.6-21.8 ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 13% Jayden Reed
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 4.0 1.1-18.3 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 33% Rams D/ST

IR

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Rashee Rice WR LOW 5.0 0.0-0.0 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% Rashee Rice

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Baker Mayfield QB MED 17.1 6.5-27.7 ↑15+: 59% | ↓5-: 5% Baker Mayfield
Jahmyr Gibbs RB HIGH 20.6 7.5-39.7 ↑15+: 61% | ↓5-: 1% Jahmyr Gibbs
Rico Dowdle RB HIGH 13.1 3.3-27.4 ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 17% Rico Dowdle
Michael Carter RB HIGH 8.8 1.2-17.4 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 34% Michael Carter
DK Metcalf WR HIGH 12.7 4.9-22.5 ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 10% DK Metcalf
Michael Wilson WR HIGH 12.5 3.3-30.6 ↑15+: 30% | ↓5-: 26% Michael Wilson
Trey McBride TE MED 17.2 8.3-29.5 ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 0% Trey McBride
Jaguars D/ST D/ST HIGH 9.1 0.5-17.7 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 30% Jaguars D/ST
Harrison Butker K HIGH 8.2 2.9-14.7 ↑15+: 9% | ↓5-: 27% Harrison Butker

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Aaron Rodgers QB HIGH 14.8 5.7-25.5 ↑15+: 45% | ↓5-: 7% Aaron Rodgers
Kareem Hunt RB HIGH 10.3 2.4-20.3 ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 27% Kareem Hunt
Rome Odunze WR LOW 0.0 0.0-0.0 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% Rome Odunze
Jordan Addison WR HIGH 12.2 5.4-21.8 ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 7% Jordan Addison
Romeo Doubs WR HIGH 10.3 2.6-20.4 ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 25% Romeo Doubs
Darren Waller TE HIGH 12.2 3.0-23.5 ↑15+: 40% | ↓5-: 27% Darren Waller
Colby Parkinson TE HIGH 9.3 2.3-18.9 ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 32% Colby Parkinson

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 17% @ 24.3 59% @ 14.3 25% @ 5.9 13.9
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 27% @ 28.6 44% @ 18.4 29% @ 7.6 18.1
Tetairoa McMillan WR 14% @ 27.6 37% @ 13.7 49% @ 7.0 12.4
Omarion Hampton RB 25% @ 23.1 43% @ 12.1 32% @ 5.2 12.6
Jason Myers K 25% @ 18.2 44% @ 11.8 31% @ 6.5 11.7
Juwan Johnson TE 30% @ 14.9 45% @ 8.8 25% @ 3.7 9.4
Jameson Williams WR 29% @ 24.4 44% @ 15.7 28% @ 5.4 15.3
Jacoby Brissett QB 74% @ 21.4 2% @ 14.7 23% @ 5.9 17.6
Chargers D/ST D/ST 36% @ 15.0 42% @ 8.4 22% @ 2.8 9.5

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

PlayerPosESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%
Chargers D/STD/ST4.212.0BOOM54.3%29.9%15.8%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR14.215.0MODERATE41.7%35.6%22.7%
Jordan LoveQB17.315.0MODERATE26.7%52.3%20.9%
Jason MyersK8.12.0BUST23.7%54.8%21.5%
Rashee RiceWR0.05.0BUST23.6%45.1%31.2%
Juwan JohnsonTE9.19.0MODERATE18.1%25.4%56.5%
Tetairoa McMillanWR13.113.0MODERATE16.9%61.5%21.6%
Tyjae SpearsRB8.710.0MODERATE16.4%46.7%37.0%
Jacoby BrissettQB18.821.0BOOM14.1%48.6%37.3%
Jayden ReedWR11.213.0MODERATE12.9%35.1%52.1%
Bucky IrvingRB15.214.0MODERATE12.8%39.0%48.2%
Jameson WilliamsWR15.922.0BOOM12.2%44.1%43.7%
Isiah PachecoRB9.36.0BUST11.3%29.5%59.2%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR19.923.6BOOM11.2%65.8%23.0%
Rams D/STD/ST5.74.0BUST10.8%30.7%58.5%
Devin SingletaryRB7.54.0BUST9.8%31.1%59.2%
Omarion HamptonRB13.213.0MODERATE8.7%32.6%58.7%

League Standings

Week 16 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank Team Record PF (Total) PA (Total) +/- This Week Streak Playoff %
1 Kitty's Piggy Skins 10-5 1865.5 1676.5 +189.0 4.2 vs 0.0 L1 100.0%
2 4th and pinches 10-5 1771.1 1791.0 -19.9 0.0 vs 25.6 W2 100.0%
3 Valued Customers ← 9-6 1848.4 1558.6 +289.8 25.6 vs 0.0 W5 100.0%
4 Ryan's Rowdy Team 8-7 1759.9 1729.2 +30.8 0.0 vs 4.2 W1 100.0%
5 Wookie of the Year 8-7 1740.3 1731.9 +8.4 34.4 vs 0.0 L1 0.0%
6 Meat Pistols 8-7 1515.0 1699.3 -184.3 0.0 vs 34.4 L2 0.0%
7 Torta Pounders Football Club 7-8 1730.5 1739.1 -8.6 0.0 vs 64.5 L2 0.0%
8 Moms rules 7-8 1729.4 1778.5 -49.1 64.5 vs 0.0 W1 0.0%
9 Smooth Roosters 7-8 1664.4 1677.8 -13.4 0.0 vs 30.9 W3 0.0%
10 The Warsaw Pact 6-9 1684.4 1752.0 -67.6 30.9 vs 0.0 W2 0.0%
11 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 6-9 1584.0 1692.1 -108.1 0.0 vs 2.5 L5 0.0%
12 Auto DraftKings 4-11 1700.4 1767.4 -67.0 2.5 vs 0.0 L4 0.0%

Week 16 Matchups

Away TeamScoreScoreHome Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins 4.2 @ 0.0 Ryan's Rowdy Team
4th and pinches 0.0 @ 25.6 Valued Customers
Wookie of the Year 34.4 @ 0.0 Meat Pistols
Torta Pounders Football Club 0.0 @ 64.5 Moms rules
Smooth Roosters 0.0 @ 30.9 The Warsaw Pact
Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 0.0 @ 2.5 Auto DraftKings

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Weekly Team Points

Cumulative Points

Cumulative Team Points

Week 16 Research Analysis - UPDATED Dec 20

Key Injury Updates

  • Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) - EXPECTED TO PLAY: Practiced all 3 days (limited), told media "heel is good enough to go". First game back after 2 weeks - snap count likely but ATL matchup is ELITE.
  • Rashee Rice (KC) - CONCUSSION PROTOCOL: Not practicing Wed/Thu. HIGH RISK - may be OUT.
  • Mike Hughes (ATL CB) - OUT: Boosts MHJ and Michael Wilson's ceilings.

Matchup Deep Dives

WR/FLEX DECISION - MHJ vs McMillan vs Jayden Reed

  1. MHJ vs ATL (15.0 proj):
  2. ATL defense "collapsed" vs WRs - 7 games of 15+ pts over last 5 weeks
  3. Game total 47.0 (high scoring expected)
  4. Risk: First game back = snap count
  5. VERDICT: START in FLEX

  6. McMillan vs TB (13.0 proj):

  7. TB allows 2nd-most passing yards over last 5 weeks
  8. But: Out-targeted by Jalen Coker recently (10 vs 6)
  9. Rookie floor concerns
  10. VERDICT: BENCH

  11. Jayden Reed @ CHI (13.0 proj):

  12. Bears allow 4th-most yards to slot WRs
  13. BUT: SNOW GAME (100% precip, 28F)
  14. Returned from IR, still building
  15. VERDICT: BENCH (weather concern)

Vegas-Implied Game Scripts

  • DET vs CHI (48.0): Jameson Williams ceiling game - highest total on roster
  • ARI vs ATL (47.0): Brissett + MHJ stack - dome environment
  • TB vs CAR (45.5): Bucky Irving smash spot
  • LAC vs DAL (49.5): Chargers D/ST ELITE play (DAL 32nd vs DST)

Final Confidence Tiers

LOCKED-IN STARTERS: JSN (23.6 pts banked), Jameson Williams, Brissett, Chargers D/ST CONFIDENT STARTERS: Bucky Irving, Omarion Hampton, MHJ ACCEPTABLE: Juwan Johnson (250k incentive), Jason Myers (TNF 2.0 - already played) AVOID: Rams D/ST, Isiah Pacheco, Devin Singletary

Reddit Insights

Hot Topics

Positive Buzz: Jacoby Brissett, Jameson Williams, Tyjae Spears, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Negative Buzz: Rashee Rice, Marvin Harrison Jr. (snap concerns)

Mixed Buzz: Jordan Love (snow game), Jayden Reed (snow but elite matchup)

Sources

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

Crystal Society Debates

Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 16)

Week 16 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

10.1
Our Team MAE
17 players
13.8
Opponent MAE
9 players
0.0
Free Agent MAE
6 players
32
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 9.2
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Opponent RB Jahmyr Gibbs 23.9 - 0.0 -23.9
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 15.9 22.0 0.0 -22.0
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 18.8 21.0 0.0 -21.0
Opponent TE Trey McBride 16.8 - 0.0 -16.8
Opponent QB Baker Mayfield 16.6 - 0.0 -16.6
Opponent RB Rico Dowdle 15.2 - 0.0 -15.2
Our Team QB Jordan Love 17.3 15.0 0.0 -15.0
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 14.2 15.0 0.0 -15.0
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 15.2 14.0 0.0 -14.0
Opponent WR DK Metcalf 13.5 - 0.0 -13.5
Opponent WR Michael Wilson 13.4 - 0.0 -13.4
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 13.1 13.0 0.0 -13.0
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 13.2 13.0 0.0 -13.0
Our Team WR Jayden Reed 11.2 13.0 0.0 -13.0
Our Team D/ST Chargers D/ST 4.2 12.0 0.0 -12.0
Opponent RB Michael Carter 11.0 - 0.0 -11.0
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 8.7 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.1 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Opponent K Harrison Butker 8.0 - 0.0 -8.0
Our Team RB Isiah Pacheco 9.3 6.0 0.0 -6.0
Opponent D/ST Jaguars D/ST 5.6 - 0.0 -5.6
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 0.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 7.5 4.0 0.0 -4.0
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 19.9 23.6 23.6 +0.0
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.1 2.0 2.0 +0.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 5.7 4.0 4.0 +0.0
Free Agent RB Isiah Pacheco 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0
Free Agent K Ka'imi Fairbairn 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0
Free Agent K Eddy Pineiro 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0
Free Agent D/ST Patriots D/ST 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0
Free Agent D/ST Chargers D/ST 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0
Free Agent D/ST Chiefs D/ST 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0

Week 15 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_014 (2025-12-15)

5.7
Our Team MAE
18 players
8.6
Free Agent MAE
3 players
21
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 6.2
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.5 10.0 24.0 +14.0
Free Agent TE Harold Fannin Jr. 0.0 - 12.0 +12.0
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 13.9 17.0 26.4 +9.4
Free Agent D/ST Steelers D/ST 0.0 - 9.0 +9.0
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 13.2 13.0 4.5 -8.5
Our Team D/ST Bears D/ST 6.6 10.0 18.0 +8.0
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 15.2 16.0 8.1 -7.9
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 10.8 10.0 2.4 -7.6
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 13.9 13.0 20.6 +7.6
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20.6 25.0 18.3 -6.7
Our Team WR Luther Burden III 8.1 8.0 14.4 +6.4
Our Team QB Marcus Mariota 18.1 21.0 14.7 -6.3
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 4.2 5.0 -1.0 -6.0
Free Agent RB Chuba Hubbard 0.0 - 4.8 +4.8
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.7 11.0 7.0 -4.0
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.2 16.0 12.1 -3.9
Our Team TE Hunter Henry 10.3 6.0 2.8 -3.2
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 11.7 10.0 7.5 -2.5
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 10.1 7.0 5.6 -1.4
Our Team QB Jordan Love 14.8 14.0 13.9 -0.1
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_projection_accuracy_overall.png llm_projection_accuracy_by_position.png llm_projection_error_distribution.png llm_projection_accuracy_trend.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 16 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.

Jordan Love (QB)
Jordan Love distribution
LLM 15.0 pts
ESPN 17.3 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
53%
BOOM
21%
10th percentile 6.8 pts
Median (50th) 15.5 pts
90th percentile 27.4 pts
MC (Historical)
21% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
27% BOOM
Bucky Irving (RB)
Bucky Irving distribution
LLM 14.0 pts
ESPN 15.2 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
59%
BOOM
17%
10th percentile 5.0 pts
Median (50th) 13.2 pts
90th percentile 23.5 pts
MC (Historical)
17% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba distribution
LLM 23.6 pts
ESPN 19.9 pts
BUST
29%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 6.5 pts
Median (50th) 18.0 pts
90th percentile 30.1 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Tetairoa McMillan (WR)
Tetairoa McMillan distribution
LLM 13.0 pts
ESPN 13.1 pts
BUST
49%
MODERATE
37%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 4.8 pts
Median (50th) 10.0 pts
90th percentile 25.3 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
17% BOOM
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)
Marvin Harrison Jr. distribution
LLM 15.0 pts
ESPN 14.2 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 3.7 pts
Median (50th) 11.3 pts
90th percentile 21.9 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
42% BOOM
Rashee Rice (WR)
Rashee Rice distribution
LLM 5.0 pts
ESPN 0.0 pts
OUT
100%
10th percentile 0.0 pts
Median (50th) 0.0 pts
90th percentile 0.0 pts
MC (Historical)
0% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
24% BOOM
Tyjae Spears (RB)
Tyjae Spears distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 8.7 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
61%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 2.6 pts
Median (50th) 7.6 pts
90th percentile 18.0 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
16% BOOM
Omarion Hampton (RB)
Omarion Hampton distribution
LLM 13.0 pts
ESPN 13.2 pts
BUST
32%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 3.7 pts
Median (50th) 11.1 pts
90th percentile 24.2 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Jason Myers (K)
Jason Myers distribution
LLM 2.0 pts
ESPN 8.1 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 5.4 pts
Median (50th) 11.2 pts
90th percentile 18.9 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
24% BOOM
Juwan Johnson (TE)
Juwan Johnson distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 9.1 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
45%
BOOM
30%
10th percentile 2.9 pts
Median (50th) 8.7 pts
90th percentile 16.5 pts
MC (Historical)
30% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
18% BOOM
Jameson Williams (WR)
Jameson Williams distribution
LLM 22.0 pts
ESPN 15.9 pts
BUST
28%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 4.2 pts
Median (50th) 15.2 pts
90th percentile 26.1 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Rams D/ST (D/ST)
Rams D/ST distribution
LLM 4.0 pts
ESPN 5.7 pts
BUST
40%
MODERATE
38%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 1.1 pts
Median (50th) 7.7 pts
90th percentile 18.4 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Devin Singletary (RB)
Devin Singletary distribution
LLM 4.0 pts
ESPN 7.5 pts
BUST
61%
MODERATE
21%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 0.7 pts
Median (50th) 4.4 pts
90th percentile 18.3 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Jacoby Brissett (QB)
Jacoby Brissett distribution
LLM 21.0 pts
ESPN 18.8 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
2%
BOOM
74%
10th percentile 4.5 pts
Median (50th) 18.2 pts
90th percentile 28.1 pts
MC (Historical)
74% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Chargers D/ST (D/ST)
Chargers D/ST distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN 4.2 pts
BUST
22%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
36%
10th percentile 0.9 pts
Median (50th) 8.9 pts
90th percentile 17.9 pts
MC (Historical)
36% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
54% BOOM
Isiah Pacheco (RB)
Isiah Pacheco distribution
LLM 6.0 pts
ESPN 9.3 pts
BUST
70%
MODERATE
27%
BOOM
3%
10th percentile 2.2 pts
Median (50th) 5.7 pts
90th percentile 15.1 pts
MC (Historical)
3% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Jayden Reed (WR)
Jayden Reed distribution
LLM 13.0 pts
ESPN 11.2 pts
BUST
37%
MODERATE
53%
BOOM
10%
10th percentile 4.6 pts
Median (50th) 10.0 pts
90th percentile 20.8 pts
MC (Historical)
10% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB)
Jahmyr Gibbs distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 23.9 pts
BUST
34%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
24%
10th percentile 7.5 pts
Median (50th) 18.0 pts
90th percentile 39.4 pts
MC (Historical)
24% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
7% BOOM
Trey McBride (TE)
Trey McBride distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 16.8 pts
BUST
40%
MODERATE
33%
BOOM
26%
10th percentile 8.3 pts
Median (50th) 15.7 pts
90th percentile 29.4 pts
MC (Historical)
26% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
17% BOOM
DK Metcalf (WR)
DK Metcalf distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 13.5 pts
BUST
39%
MODERATE
40%
BOOM
21%
10th percentile 4.9 pts
Median (50th) 11.4 pts
90th percentile 22.4 pts
MC (Historical)
21% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
30% BOOM
Michael Wilson (WR)
Michael Wilson distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 13.4 pts
BUST
55%
MODERATE
29%
BOOM
16%
10th percentile 3.3 pts
Median (50th) 8.7 pts
90th percentile 30.2 pts
MC (Historical)
16% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
8% BOOM
Baker Mayfield (QB)
Baker Mayfield distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 16.6 pts
BUST
34%
MODERATE
52%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 6.5 pts
Median (50th) 16.8 pts
90th percentile 28.1 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
18% BOOM
Rico Dowdle (RB)
Rico Dowdle distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 15.2 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
57%
BOOM
19%
10th percentile 3.3 pts
Median (50th) 11.2 pts
90th percentile 27.3 pts
MC (Historical)
19% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Michael Carter (RB)
Michael Carter distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 11.0 pts
BUST
29%
MODERATE
41%
BOOM
30%
10th percentile 1.2 pts
Median (50th) 8.0 pts
90th percentile 17.3 pts
MC (Historical)
30% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
16% BOOM
Jaguars D/ST (D/ST)
Jaguars D/ST distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 5.6 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
34%
BOOM
42%
10th percentile 0.5 pts
Median (50th) 8.5 pts
90th percentile 18.1 pts
MC (Historical)
42% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
48% BOOM
Harrison Butker (K)
Harrison Butker distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 8.0 pts
BUST
29%
MODERATE
46%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 2.9 pts
Median (50th) 7.6 pts
90th percentile 14.6 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
16% BOOM